Technical Analysis (D1 Timeframe)
On the daily chart, EURUSD remains trapped within a medium-term symmetrical triangle, a consolidation pattern that has been developing since March. The pair is now trading very close to the apex of the formation, suggesting that a breakout and a stronger directional move may be approaching.
Price is currently oscillating around the 50-day EMA (1.1695) and the 200-day EMA (1.1670). The two moving averages are trading very close to each other, confirming the lack of a clear trend and highlighting the market's transition into a balanced, range-bound environment. EURUSD remains slightly below the 50-day EMA but above the 200-day EMA, maintaining a broadly neutral technical setup.
The upper boundary of the triangle is currently located around 1.1680–1.1700, while key support can be found near 1.1630–1.1650. The market has respected both boundaries multiple times, with April and May highs repeatedly stalling near resistance and March and May lows establishing a rising support line.
From a technical perspective, breakouts from symmetrical triangles often lead to sharp directional moves, particularly when they occur close to the apex of the pattern.
MACD and RSI
The MACD remains below the zero line, although the histogram is clearly reducing its negative readings. This suggests:
- Fading bearish momentum,
- The potential emergence of a bullish signal if the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
While this is not yet a definitive buy signal, selling pressure appears to be weakening.
Meanwhile, the RSI is hovering around 48, almost exactly at neutral territory. This leaves room for both an upside breakout and a downside move without indicating either overbought or oversold conditions.
Key Levels to Watch
Support:
- 1.1640–1.1650 (lower boundary of the triangle)
- 1.1600
- 1.1540
Resistance:
- 1.1680–1.1700 (upper boundary of the triangle)
- 1.1760
- 1.1820–1.1850
Bullish Scenario
A break above 1.1700 accompanied by a daily close above the upper boundary of the triangle would represent the first major signal of renewed bullish momentum. In such a scenario, EURUSD could initially target the 1.1760 area before potentially retesting April highs near 1.1820–1.1850.
Bearish Scenario
If the pair fails to overcome resistance and instead breaks below support around 1.1640, the risk of a move toward 1.1600 and subsequently 1.1540 would increase significantly. Such a breakout would also be supported by the MACD remaining below the zero line.
Conclusion
From a technical standpoint, EURUSD is currently at an equilibrium point. The most important feature on the chart remains the narrowing symmetrical triangle, which points to an approaching breakout. As long as the pair remains trapped between 1.1640 and 1.1700, neither bulls nor bears have a clear advantage. However, the gradual fading of bearish momentum on the MACD slightly increases the probability of an upside breakout attempt in the coming sessions.
Source: xStation5
US OPEN: Dell soars and keeps pushing tech stocks higher 🚀
RBNZ Regime Change: The Ultimate Hard-Hawk Pivot 🦅 Time to shine for NZD 🇳🇿
BREAKING: Sharp drop of the CAD; Canadian GDP data spooked investors 🚨
German inflation data well below expectations. A dovish signal for ECB?
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
