The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around 153.50, with significant price fluctuations observed. The market remains highly sensitive to developments from both the US and Japan. The yen is losing its role as a safe-haven currency, and any comments from BoJ members or macroeconomic data releases can trigger sharp movements in the pair.
Source: xStation5
Key factors influencing USD/JPY
Bank of Japan policy and government actions
The Bank of Japan continues its process of interest rate normalization, but market reactions remain dynamic. Comments from an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, suggesting there is no urgent need to appoint reflationists to upcoming BoJ board vacancies, initially weakened the yen and allowed USD/JPY to rise toward 153.30. However, later hawkish remarks from BoJ board member Tamura strengthened the yen, generating sharp fluctuations in the pair.
US macroeconomic data
Investors are still awaiting the release of US CPI, which could determine the short-term direction of USD/JPY. Stronger-than-expected CPI readings could support the dollar, while weaker data may limit the pair’s upside. Short-term price swings are currently very large, reflecting market uncertainty ahead of this key release.
Market sentiment and risk-off conditions
Investor caution remains high. Risk-off sentiment does not favor the yen in this instance, but the currency reacts sharply to any impulses from the US or Japan. Volatility in the pair remains elevated, and traders are avoiding long-term positions ahead of the CPI release.
Possible short-term scenarios
-
Strong CPI data could push USD/JPY above 154, continuing the short-term upward trend.
-
Weaker CPI readings in the US may trigger a rapid yen rebound and a drop below 153.00.
-
Currently, the pair may fluctuate dynamically in the 153.00–154.00 range, depending on market reactions to macro data and BoJ communications.
USD/JPY is in a phase of high volatility, with the yen reacting dynamically to political and macroeconomic developments. The pair is trading around 153.50, but its short-term direction will depend on the US CPI release and further signals from Japan.
AI scare trade broadens out as we wait for key inflation update
Morning Wrap: Global sell-off in the technology sector (13.02.2026)
Daily summary: Silver plunges 9% 🚨Indices, crypto and precious metals under pressure
US100 loses 1.5% 📉
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
