Monday's rise in energy commodity prices proved short-lived, weighing further on the Norwegian currency. The USDNOK pair is approaching the 9.50 level, which was last seen two months ago. Aside from headlines coming out of the Middle East, tomorrow's scheduled releases of May inflation data from both Norway and the US should take center stage for the pair.
Geopolitics
The weekend exchange of fire between Israel and Iran has cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire currently in place across the region. Under pressure from Washington, both sides halted further strikes. However, the situation remains highly uncertain, which could sustain high volatility in the prices of key energy commodities.
Macroeconomic Data
Tomorrow's readings are expected to show core inflation remaining unchanged at 3.2%, alongside a slight decline in the headline figure to 3.1% in Norway. An upside surprise could raise expectations for further monetary policy tightening by Norges Bank. As a reminder, the central bank delivered its first interest rate hike since 2023 back in May, reacting to rapidly rising inflation expectations, persistently elevated wage growth, and the concerning stickiness of core inflation.
Meanwhile, the headline CPI figure in the United States is expected to edge upward to 4.2%. The consensus also forecasts a modest increase in the core metric to 2.9%. Investors have already fully priced in a Fed rate hike for 2026. A further build-up of price pressures could increase the likelihood of this hike occurring as early as this autumn.
Technical Analysis
Chart 1: USDNOK (01.07.2025 - 09.06.2026)
Source: xStation, 09.06.2026
After establishing a new local low at the 9.13 level, a strong and aggressive demand-driven rebound ensued. The first two key technical resistance levels have been broken. The price has approached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which could serve as a crucial test for the ongoing upward trend.
The strong momentum of the move is reflected in technical indicators. The RSI is currently hovering around 67 points, signaling that the market is gradually entering overbought territory, which could trigger a temporary pause in momentum.
Key Levels to Watch:
- To the Upside: If buyers manage to sustain the price above the tested 50% Fibo level, the next natural target for the market could be the 9.56 level, where both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100 EMA coincide.
- To the Downside: Conversely, a sustained rejection of the current resistance level would mean anticipating a return to the primary trend and a retest of lower support levels.
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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
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