CBOE VIX futures are rising nearly 2.5% today amid renewed declines on Wall Street and gains in oil (OIL), which has once again moved above the $100 per barrel level. Intraday market volatility has rarely been this elevated in recent quarters. Investor uncertainty remains exceptionally high.
- Intraday volatility of VIX futures has climbed to its highest level in six months. This indicator measures price fluctuations within a single trading day using 15-minute intervals. The current level is around four times higher than the average, which is typically observed during periods of intense market panic.
- At the same time, implied volatility for the S&P 500, reflecting the expected daily move of the index, has increased to around 1.77%, the highest level since April 2025. Over the past three months, there have been only two sessions with moves greater than 1.75%. This suggests that futures and options markets are pricing in significantly more volatility than the S&P 500 is actually experiencing.
VIX (D1 timeframe)
The VIX volatility index is resuming its upward movement and has once again reacted to support near the lower boundary of the ascending trend line. A move above 26 could increase the likelihood of a rise toward 28, which marks the upper boundary of the upward channel that VIX already broke out from last week. If upward momentum builds again, the move could be stronger and extend beyond the 30 level.
Source: xStation5
Looking at the dynamics of the spot VIX index, similar historical spikes in volatility have often coincided with buying opportunities for the S&P 500 over a three-month horizon. Exceptions include February 2020 and December 2021.
Source: SubuTrade
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