COCOA futures gain 3% today, driven by concerns about supply in the anticipation of a weaker than expected crop in the Ivory Coast for the season. However, almost 1 hour ago, futures on this commodity surged even 6%. Massive profit-taking pressured prices. The Ivory Coast is responsible for over a third of the world's commodity production. Markets anticipate that the country will produce 1.9 million tons of cocoa in the current 2024-25 season; a nearly 10% lower than the government's initial prediction of appx. 2.1 to 2.2 million tons, in October. Also, still dry African weather poses the increasing risk to cocoa trees. Next year may still be problematic for the global cocoa market. Now, we can see a risk of further speculative (but fundamentals driven) rise in both futures and spot prices.
Source: xStation5
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