Cocoa plunges 45% this year 🚩The sell-off accelerates

ICE cocoa futures (COCOA) are down more than 6% today as traders continue to hold off on purchases in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, despite Ghana’s sharp cut to the farmgate price paid to farmers. New York cocoa futures are falling for a seventh consecutive session. Since the start of the year, cocoa futures in both London and New York are down by roughly 45%. Prices are now at their lowest level since September 2023, having almost completely erased the speculative rally seen in 2024.

Ghana (the world’s second-largest producer) cut farmgate prices by nearly 30% last week. Côte d’Ivoire (the largest producer) has stated it will not adjust its farmgate price before the current main crop season ends on March 31, although reports suggest it is considering a reduction.
Downside pressure persists because buyers are reluctant to pay official prices for beans in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire; Ghana’s price cut, combined with weakening demand, is likely to force Côte d’Ivoire to follow with an adjustment as well.
Market outlook: prices may remain under pressure as softer demand and an improving crop outlook in West Africa raise expectations of a supply-demand surplus extending through 2027.
That said, structural production risks may limit the scope for a deeper selloff. Any demand rebound triggered by lower prices could also shift sentiment quickly, keeping volatility elevated.

Technically, the daily RSI for cocoa has dropped to around 20, pointing to extreme oversold conditions—highly unusual for the cocoa market. However, the broader trend remains bearish, with sellers firmly in control.

Source: xStation5

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