Arabica coffee futures resume their rollercoaster, dropping about 1.8% after the recent rebound driven by falling ICE stockpiles.
The COFFEE contract broke its upward momentum after surpassing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the last upward trend, plunging below the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA10, yellow). Prices are currently near Friday’s opening, with key support at the 30- and 100-day EMAs (light and dark purple).
Recent Brazilian weather forecasts may have tempered the rally. According to Climatempo, the next two weeks will see several days with a 40–80% chance of rainfall in regions like Sao Paulo (mainly Arabica) and Espirito Santo (mainly Robusta). Meanwhile, there are no signs of an end to the drought in Brazil’s key production region, Minas Gerais, which could help limit further price declines.
Source: xStation5
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