CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Commodity Wrap - Gold, Oil, Cocoa, Corn

13:30 24 September 2019

Gold

  • Gold prices experienced downward pressure following mixed decision of the Federal Reserve last week

  • ETF increase their holdings of gold, net speculative positioning bounces higher

  • Trade uncertainty keeps exerting upward pressure on precious metals’ prices

  • Massive divergence between gold and EURUSD on the monthly interval

  • Realization of range of the head and shoulders pattern at risk (D1 interval)

In spite of a mixed situation on the gold market, investment demand holds firm. Source: Bloomberg

Start investing today or test a free demo

Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile app

Massive divergence between gold and EURUSD can be spotted on the monthly interval. Shape of the current monthly candlestick will be crucial as painting a doji could put the continuation of an upward move at risk. Source: xStation5

Gold price threatens breaking above the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation and invalidating the pattern. Source: xStation5

Oil

  • Saudi Arabia is said to fully restore oil output next week

  • Production at targeted oil refineries sits at 4.3 mbd currently (over 5 mbd prior to the attacks)

  • Investors are not too sure Saudi Arabia claims are legitimate as satellite data still hints at major struggles with restoring previous output levels

  • Speculative positioning on oil barely changed in the previous week

Saudi Arabia has significant oil stockpiles, that would last for around 30 days in case the production was fully halted. Spare capacity of Saudi refineries amounted to around 1.5 mbd before the attacks. Source: S&P Global Platts, JODI

Speculative positioning on oil barely changed in the previous week. Source: Bloomberg

Cocoa

  • Indonesia has problems with cocoa supply. It has shifted from being a net exporter to being a net importer, hinting at rising demand in Asia

  • Production in Ghana could be low for another year in a row. Some estimates hint at output falling below 800k tonnes. Production reached 830k tonnes in the current season

  • Cocoa prices remain high in spite of the latest revision to total production forecasts. Estimates for the current season were raised from 4.651 million tonnes to 4.849 million tonnes

  • Number of short positions is falling but from an extremely high level. Number of long positions is rebounding

Slight oversupply during the two previous seasons hints at potential supply problems in case demand continues to rise rapidly. Source: ICCO

Speculative positioning on cocoa reached inflection point suggesting that rally may last longer. Source: Bloomberg

Corn

  • Rebound on the corn market eases after Chinese delegations dropped plans to visit farms in Montana

  • Stellar season in Brazil. Situation in international trade and cheap Brazilian real boosts exports outlook for the South American country

  • Significant divergence between soybean and corn prices in the short-term

  • US corn crop quality and harvest progress for the current season is way below 5-year averages as well as data for the previous season

Brazil can be considered a threat to the US corn exports. Nevertheless, in case Sino-US relationship improves, US exports perspective may improve and demand for US corn may surface. Source: Bloomberg

A long-term correlation between corn ending stocks and price can be spotted. Poor crop quality may cause estimates of ending stock in the following seasons to decrease. Source: Bloomberg

Corn seems to be undervalued in comparison to soybean. Source: xStation5

This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.

Back
Xtb logo

Join over 1 Million investors from around the world

We use cookies

By clicking “Accept All”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts.

This group contains cookies that are necessary for our websites to work. They take part in functionalities like language preferences, traffic distribution or keeping user session. They cannot be disabled.

Cookie name
Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol cc 2 March 2024
adobe_unique_id cc 1 March 2025
test_cookie cc 1 March 2024
SESSID cc 9 September 2022
__hssc cc 1 March 2024
__cf_bm cc 1 March 2024
intercom-id-iojaybix cc 26 November 2024
intercom-session-iojaybix cc 8 March 2024

We use tools that let us analyze the usage of our page. Such data lets us improve the user experience of our web service.

Cookie name
Description
_gid cc 9 September 2022
_gat_UA-22576382-1 cc 8 September 2022
_gat_UA-121192761-1 cc 8 September 2022
_ga_CBPL72L2EC cc 1 March 2026
_ga cc 1 March 2026
AnalyticsSyncHistory cc 8 October 2022
af_id cc 31 March 2025
afUserId cc 1 March 2026
af_id cc 1 March 2026
AF_SYNC cc 8 March 2024
__hstc cc 28 August 2024
__hssrc

This group of cookies is used to show you ads of topics that you are interested in. It also lets us monitor our marketing activities, it helps to measure the performance of our ads.

Cookie name
Description
MUID cc 26 March 2025
_omappvp cc 11 February 2035
_omappvs cc 1 March 2024
_uetsid cc 2 March 2024
_uetvid cc 26 March 2025
_fbp cc 30 May 2024
fr cc 7 December 2022
muc_ads cc 7 September 2024
lang
_ttp cc 26 March 2025
_tt_enable_cookie cc 26 March 2025
_ttp cc 26 March 2025
hubspotutk cc 28 August 2024

Cookies from this group store your preferences you gave while using the site, so that they will already be here when you visit the page after some time.

Cookie name
Description
personalization_id cc 7 September 2024
UserMatchHistory cc 8 October 2022
bcookie cc 8 September 2023
lidc cc 9 September 2022
lang
bscookie cc 8 September 2023
li_gc cc 7 March 2023

This page uses cookies. Cookies are files stored in your browser and are used by most websites to help personalise your web experience. For more information see our Privacy Policy You can manage cookies by clicking "Settings". If you agree to our use of cookies, click "Accept all".

Change region and language
Country of residence
Language