Cryptocurrencies started the week in a relatively weak mood, despite the positive momentum on the indices from Friday, which continued today in the Asian session and is continuing in Europe.
- Last week's declines were due to concerns around the Silvergate crypto-bank (SI.US) more than a general deterioration in market sentiment, which justifies the temporary lack of correlation with the Nasdaq - this was also the case when the FTX went bankrupt;
- What is worrisome, however, is that while the magnitude of possible problems caused by the Silvergate situation is relatively small for all crypto market, the price didn't rebounce since then and bulls are still under pressure. This may indicate that bears will push for a retest of lower price levels;
- In addition, the echoes of regulation have not waned - on Friday the SEC raised concerns again. Binance operates an unregistered stock exchange in the U.S. which, combined with weakening prices and concerns about the durability of the rebound in the indices, weakens sentiment. Additionally, it will likely remain a matter of time before regulators comment on Silvergate, which operated a specialized banking business for digital assets.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appWeaker Bitcoin and Ethereum are being followed by altcoins. Source: xStation5
The average price of all BTC bought (Realized Price) remains around $20,000, followed by the SMA 200 on the daily interval. If the bearish sentiment persists - a retest of this level will be possible. Source: Glassnode
The number of BTC addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC has fallen dramatically since March 2020, signaling a possible weakening of sentiment among whales. However, it is unclear how the reading has been affected by the possible splitting of funds by the largest investors into so-called smaller portfolios. Source: Glassnode
The SOPR indicator, which measures the value of realized gains and losses, settled back into the neutral vicinity of 1, signaling that the equilibrium between supply and demand had been reached (white line = 1), from which a sharp turnaround usually followed. We can also see that the reason for this was the significant pressure to realize gains in recent days. Source: Glassnode
The supply of portfolios holding BTC, last active more than a year ago, has climbed to historic peaks as the current bull market continues, and is already close to 68%. The historical trend remains upward and shows that over time more and more BTC is being held by long-term investors and not deposited in the market. Source: MacroMicro
Bitcoin chart, D1 interval. The price is still holding an upward trend line from which an upward breakout is possible. However, if prices follow the upward trendline downward, the key zones may turn out to be the 38.2 Fibonacci abolition of the upward wave started in November at $21,500 and the aforementioned SMA200 (red line), which runs around $20,000. So far, the bullish formation of the golden cross, i.e. the intersection of the SMA100 (black line) above the SMA200 has still not resulted in increases. Source: xStation5
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