Daily Summary: A Shallow Rebound Ahead of Earnings Season

USA

• The final U.S. session of the week is ending with moderate gains. The Dow Jones is performing best, with futures up about 0.7%. US500 and US2000 are up about 0.4%. Nasdaq futures are limiting gains to 0.2%. On a weekly basis, U.S. indices are finishing with a symbolic increase, consistent with a fourth consecutive weekly bullish candle.
• One catalyst for improved sentiment was a statement by President Donald Trump, who said the U.S. would take no military action against Tehran before the upcoming elections after “productive talks.”
• The technology sector is reacting positively to OpenAI-related news. According to a Bloomberg report, OpenAI’s annual revenue as of the end of September was about $50 billion, and further growth is expected to raise this figure to $70 billion by the end of December.

Company news, USA

• Humana (HUM.US): Shares surged about 13% after the insurer significantly improved its ratings in the key Medicare Advantage quality program, which will directly translate into higher premiums and future revenue. The company confirmed adjusted EPS above $9.00 for 2026.
• Telecoms: AT&T (T.US), T-Mobile (TMUS.US), and Verizon (VZ.US) are down about 7.0%. The selloff in traditional telecoms is a direct reaction to SpaceX (Elon Musk) announcing the purchase of low-frequency spectrum. This move would allow the Starlink satellite constellation to be used to enter the U.S. market as a direct nationwide mobile network operator.
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE.US): Shares of the photonics company are up about 6% after it said optical components for AI data centers are fully sold out until early 2029 due to massive demand from tech giants.
• Apple (AAPL.US): The tech giant’s shares are down about 2%. Selling pressure followed industry reports of reduced orders for components for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models due to weaker-than-forecast consumer demand.
• American Express (AXP.US): Shares are down about 2% after U.S. regulators imposed a $350 million fine for shortcomings in anti-money laundering (AML) procedures and failure to report suspicious transactions.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL.US): The carrier’s stock is down 2% after it lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. The revision is due to persistently high jet fuel prices.

Macroeconomic data, USA

• The University of Michigan released consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.
  • Sentiment in August came in at 46.3 versus 47.7 expected (previous: 48.1).
  • One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7, while long-term (5-year) expectations increased to 3.5.

Europe

• Friday’s European session is ending higher for most major indices, with gains limited to about 1%. The German DAX led, closing up 1.19%. Trading was selective, with gains mainly in technology-related assets exposed to power supply and photonics segments.
• European investors are awaiting important earnings releases next week, including ASML, BMW, and LVMH.
• However, the key driver remains the combination of expensive energy and high yields, which Barclays describes as a “toxic backdrop” for Europe. The region is particularly sensitive to both factors.
• The France-Germany bond spread narrowed to about 137 bps and fell about 3 bps over the week, but it remains elevated due to concerns over the deficit, debt levels, and political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Company news, Europe

• Deutsche Telekom (DTE.DE): The stock is down more than 6%, heading for its worst session since June 2023, after SpaceX agreed to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band 800 MHz frequencies from Grain Management. The selloff hit the entire sector, including Vodafone, Telefonica (down 4%), and Orange (down 2%).
• Porsche (PAH3.DE): The company reported deliveries down 16% year over year in the first nine months of 2026 (to 178,532 vehicles), mainly due to a collapse in demand in China (down 33%), the phase-out of the 718 line, and a strategy focused on brand value rather than volume. The iconic 911 remains strong, with sales up 12%.

FOREX

• In FX markets, emerging market currencies are weakening sharply. The Mexican peso is leading losses, down more than 1% after Banxico minutes suggested the possibility of further monetary easing.
• Amid capital outflows and monetary policy shifts, the Polish zloty is also weakening, down about 0.6% against major currency pairs.
• The Australian dollar is benefiting from a temporary improvement in risk appetite and stabilizing bond yields, strengthening about 0.3% versus major currency pairs.

Commodities

• The oil market remains skeptical about the quality and durability of de-escalation from the U.S. Brent remains above roughly $103.
• The end of the week is bringing significant gains in natural gas futures. U.S. gas is up about 2.5%. Gains are even stronger in Europe, where prices are up more than 4%. The first, and very late, hurricane of the season is affecting supply chains. According to the EIA, 57% of production in the Gulf of Mexico region has been shut in (about 1.13 billion m3).
• Gold is stabilizing after a recent drop to its lowest level since early August, although metals continue to face pressure from a strong dollar index and higher bond yields. Additional uncertainty comes from the latest University of Michigan release, which shows rising inflation alongside a weak consumer, complicating the FOMC’s task.

Crypto

• A moderate improvement in equity market sentiment is also lifting cryptocurrencies. Most tokens are posting moderate gains.
• Bitcoin is up more than 1%, holding above $82,500.
• Ethereum is showing near-zero volatility, while Solana is down just under 1%, slipping to around $109.