- Europe had a mixed session, with Germany’s DAX rising over 0.9% while the UK’s FTSE fell nearly 0.7%. France’s CAC40 closed flat, and the WIG20 remained the regional leader, climbing more than 1.6% on the day and almost 3.5% since the start of the year, signalling market hopes around ending the Ukraine war this year.
- U.S. indices maintain gains, though the S&P 500 trades with a modest increase. Nasdaq rises almost 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average loses more than 0.5%. Software companies stand out on the day, with broad gains, but Alphabet (GOOGL.US) is the star, up 3%.
- Washington plans to accelerate the deployment of autonomous vehicles, which could benefit Waymo and, indirectly, Google. Additionally, the company is developing TorchTPU, competing with Nvidia chips, and the Gemini 3 AI model is achieving success. China has again advised domestic firms to suspend purchases of Nvidia H200 chips, but the stock did not sell off and remains near $190, down slightly.
- Outside Alphabet, Intel shares rose after announcing a new gaming-focused product, and Eli Lilly advanced as it seeks business diversification through the acquisition of Ventyx Biosciences, with shares near historical highs.
- Recent U.S. data points to a relatively dovish Fed policy at the start of 2026. Job openings in the JOLTS report fell by about 700k year-on-year, missing forecasts at 7.14 million versus 7.64 million expected. Factory orders dropped -1.2% versus -1.1% forecast. Meanwhile, ISM services came in well above expectations at 52 versus 49, and private employment according to ADP rose by 41k jobs versus 50k expected and -32k previously.
- Strong gasoline inventory growth according to the EIA offset the effect of lower crude inventories, putting downward pressure on oil prices, which tumbled below $60 per barrel, approaching local lows. The market increasingly prices in risks of weaker demand and abundant supply.
- Commodity fund buying, drought in the U.S. Great Plains, geopolitical risks, lower exports through the Black Sea, and expected higher imports from China support agricultural prices at the start of 2026. Wheat, soybeans, and corn are rebounding after sharp declines.
- The precious metals market is under downward pressure, with gold falling nearly 1%, silver down almost 5%, and platinum down 6%. The CFTC Commitment of Traders structure appears more favorable to gold than silver, although overall leverage and open interest are significant, potentially supporting short-term volatility.
- Bitcoin is losing upward momentum, falling to $91k, unable to surpass around $95k, a potentially key level for gamma dealers—breaking above it would push them into negative gamma, forcing them to buy BTC at higher prices. The overall market picture remains bearish despite record U.S. spot ETF purchases since October.
- Russia accused the U.S. of illegally seizing a tanker. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reported that the U.S. is seeking a favorable deal with Venezuela, which would involve large investments by oil companies in the country. Next week, meetings are planned with Denmark and Greenland regarding control over a strategic island. Donald Trump, via Truth Social, expressed solidarity with NATO, while noting differences within the alliance and highlighting U.S. initiative in building military capabilities.
Daily summary: exceptionally low US trade deficit; dollar remains strong 📌
Stock market check in: defense stocks steal the limelight
NY Fed Survey: higher inflation expectations, but also higher equity price expectations 📄🔎
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