- U.S. stock indexes ended the day slightly higher. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 (US100) rose 0.2%. Earlier in the session, indices were up over 1% on optimism surrounding potential U.S.-China trade talks.
- However, gains were trimmed after Donald Trump stated that he has no intention of reducing tariffs on China, insisting that Beijing should make the first move. The comment weighed on market sentiment and contributed to the late-session pullback.
- This weekend, U.S. and Chinese officials will hold trade talks in Switzerland — a significant development after weeks of conflicting signals. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, marking a notable diplomatic step.
- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. The Fed noted elevated risks to inflation and the labor market while highlighting significantly negative net exports. On the flip side, it acknowledged strong economic activity and a resilient job market.
- Markets were largely unmoved by the Fed’s decision. Investors still price in around 75 basis points of rate cuts this year, with the first cut expected in June. The EUR/USD trades above 1.1350, while gold remains down around 1%, following yesterday’s record close near $3,430/oz.
- In Poland, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) cut rates by 50 basis points, the first cut since October 2023, in line with expectations. The market showed little reaction. Interest rate decisions are also expected tomorrow from Riksbank, Norges Bank, and the Bank of England.
- Natural gas futures rose today amid concerns that tariff frictions between the U.S. and Canada could reduce supply and raise domestic stockpile usage. However, mild weather patterns across the U.S., with no significant frosts or heatwaves, are capping gains.
- Crude oil inventories fell slightly more than expected — by 2 million barrels — along with declines in refined product inventories. Unexpectedly, gasoline stocks increased, and oil prices remain under pressure following OPEC+’s decision to continue aggressively increasing output.
- Alphabet shares dropped more than 8% after reports that Apple is considering expanding Safari’s capabilities with AI-based search across its devices. The report noted a decline in Safari search interest in April, coinciding with rising AI-related search queries.
- Bitcoin surged to $97,000, fueled by anticipation of U.S.-China negotiations and a decision by New Hampshire, which became the first U.S. state to commit to acquiring strategic reserves in Bitcoin — and possibly Ethereum.
- Military tensions between India and Pakistan escalated after Indian airstrikes targeted suspected terrorist camps in Pakistan. Islamabad claimed to have responded with artillery fire and the downing of five Indian aircraft. Despite the flare-up, financial markets remained unaffected, with India’s Nifty 50 index gaining over 0.1% on the day.
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