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Sentiment on Wall Street is mixed today. Tech stocks are leading gains (US100: +0.4%), with the S&P 500 (US500: +0.1%) also higher. Losses in the DJIA (US30: -0.1%) reflect investor caution ahead of Thursday’s inflation data.
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European index futures mostly trade in the green. Poland’s W20 (+2.17%) led gains, followed by SPA35 (+1%) and AUT20 (+0.8%). FRA40 (+0.55%) holds its advance despite the collapse of Prime Minister Bayrou’s government, while DE40 adds 0.5%.
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French PM François Bayrou failed to win a confidence vote in the National Assembly. As pledged, he will submit his resignation tomorrow to President Emmanuel Macron, who must then either appoint a new PM or dissolve parliament for fresh elections.
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Gold hit fresh record highs, surpassing $3,600/oz at the start of the week. It’s up about 1% today, touching $3,644/oz, and more than 5% since the start of the month.
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Oil recovered losses from late last week, supported by reports OPEC+ agreed to resume restoring production tied to earlier COVID-era cuts. The group will add 137,000 bpd monthly, with decisions reviewed each month. Saudi Aramco trimmed export prices for Asia and Europe, though they remain above Dubai benchmarks.
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The EU is preparing a new sanctions package against Russia, expected Friday, targeting banks and other institutions. Natural gas prices jumped 5% on lower output and rising demand expectations, with tropical storm concerns also providing support. Gains later eased to around 1.5%.
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On FX, the U.S. dollar is weakening as markets price in a Fed rate cut next week (USDIDX: -0.1%). Antipodean currencies lead (NZDUSD: +0.7%, AUDUSD: +0.5%), while EURUSD rises 0.2% to 1.1738.
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The Polish zloty remains strong against the euro and dollar despite Fitch lowering Poland’s credit rating outlook. Gains on the W20 were driven largely by a rebound in the banking sector.
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German industrial production rose 1.5% y/y in July (vs. -0.3% expected, after -3.5% prior). On a monthly basis, output increased 1.3% m/m (vs. 1.0% expected, after -0.1% prior). Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €14.7B (vs. €15.3B expected, €15.9B prior).
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