Daily wrap: The oil is set for the biggest monthly gain in a year

17:52 27 December 2019

The price of oil was mixed today, mainly due to earlier comments from Russia’s Novak who said that the oil agreement should end in 2020. On the other hand, the DOE report showed that inventories decreased more than the market expected. The market is set for the biggest monthly gain in a year. 

The Wall Street was strong on Thursady session and positive tone was present at the end of the week too. European markets were higher today also, but Asian session was mixed despite that corporate profits in China increased 5.4% in November, up from -9.9% in October. 

The economic calendar was rather empty today, although we received some report from Japan (except that from China) and of course from the oil market. Industrial output in Japan declined a bit less than expected in November (-0.9% m/m), annual rate was down to -8.1% though. Retail sales in Japan was down -2.1% y/y in November, weaker than expected, but the unemployment rate dropped to just 2.2% (multiyear low).

Mentioned data from the oil market concerned inventories in the US. The price of oil rebounds on the biggest draw of oil inventories than the market expected. The drop was almost 5,5 million barrels while 1,5 decrease was expected. Distillates inventories decreased also, despite expectations indicated a little increase. On the other hand gasoline inventories rose almost by 2 million barrels. Market expected 1,6 million barrels increase due to rebound of refinery utilization.

We saw a big sale of the US dollar today. The sell-off of the dollar was related probably to the positive sentiment on the market, because the USDJPY currency pair has barely changed. EURUSD increased today almost by 100 pips and the there is a possibility to test 1.1200 in the very near future. 

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