Today marks the final day of the quarter, suggesting potentially heightened market volatility. As the month-end approaches, a barrage of preliminary macroeconomic releases is expected, with data heavily concentrated in Europe, though key US figures are also due in the afternoon. Notably, these could be some of the last US data points for a while, given the significant risk of a government shutdown, which could potentially mean the crucial NFP employment report will not be released this Friday.
Data already released from Japan showed significant weakness in both industrial production and retail sales, which is unlikely to support aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), despite the September meeting minutes indicating a strong cohort of "hawks" who favour further increases toward the neutral rate.
During the Asian session, several Chinese PMI figures were published, which largely surpassed expectations, pointing to a positive impact from recent stimulus measures. Only the manufacturing PMI for large state-owned enterprises remained marginally below the 50-point threshold.
Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained interest rates at 3.6%, in line with expectations. AUD/USD continues the strong gains seen in recent sessions, as the RBA communiqué cited increasing inflation risks and a solid economic backdrop.
Today's Economic Calendar (BST)
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07:00 BST UK - Final GDP for Q2 (y/y). Forecast: 1.2%; Previous: 1.3%
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07:00 BST Germany - Retail Sales for August s.a. (m/m). Forecast: 0.5%; Previous: -1.5%
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07:45 BST France - CPI Inflation for September (y/y). Forecast: 1.3%; Previous: 0.9%
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08:00 BST Switzerland - KOF Economic Barometer for September. Forecast: 97.1; Previous: 97.4
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08:55 BST Germany - Unemployment Rate for September. Forecast: 6.3%; Previous: 6.3%
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09:00 BST Poland - CPI Inflation for September (y/y). Forecast: 3.0%; Previous: 2.9%
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10:30 BST EMU - Speech by ECB Head, Christine Lagarde
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13:00 BST Germany - CPI Inflation for September (y/y). Forecast: 2.3%; Previous: 2.2%
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14:00 BST USA - House Price Index for July (m/m). Forecast: 0.0%; Previous: -0.2%
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14:45 BST USA - Chicago PMI Index. Forecast: 43.1; Previous: 41.5
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15:00 BST USA - Conference Board Consumer Confidence for September. Forecast: 96; Previous: 97.4
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