Today’s calendar started with data from Japan and the United Kingdom. Japanese exports rose by 16.7% YoY versus 20.1% expected, while imports increased by 18.9% versus 19.6% expected. The trade deficit came in at JPY 536.6bn, wider than forecast. More attention was drawn by UK inflation, which accelerated to 3.5% YoY versus 3.4% expected, while core inflation rose to 2.8% versus 2.7% expected. PPI also came in above forecasts, which could support a more cautious stance from the Bank of England.
Later in the day, the main traditional macroeconomic release will be Canadian CPI inflation. Although from a broader market perspective, publications in the US may prove more important. At 03:30 PM GMT, the EIA report will be released, with the market expecting crude oil inventories to fall by 1.2 million barrels, following an 8.6 million barrel decline a week earlier. Given elevated volatility in energy prices, the release may carry more weight than usual. At 06:00 PM GMT, the US will hold a 20-year Treasury auction, providing another test of demand for US government debt. Later in the day, we will also receive New Zealand CPI inflation.
- 12:50 AM GMT – Japan: exports +16.7% YoY, expected +20.1%; imports +18.9%, expected +19.6%; trade balance -JPY 536.6bn
- 07:00 AM GMT – UK: CPI +3.5% YoY, expected +3.4%, previous +3.1%; core inflation +2.8%, expected +2.7%
- 07:00 AM GMT – UK: PPI +4.6% YoY, expected +4.3%, previous +3.7%
- 01:30 PM GMT – Canada: CPI inflation and core measures: Trimmed CPI, Median CPI, and BoC Core CPI
- 03:30 PM GMT – US: EIA crude oil inventories – forecast -1.2mn barrels, previous -8.6mn
- 03:30 PM GMT – US: gasoline and distillate inventories
- 06:00 PM GMT – US: 20-year Treasury auction
- 10:45 PM GMT – New Zealand: CPI – forecast 3.8% YoY and 0.8% QoQ, previous 4.1% and 1.5%
Morning Wrap (21.10.2026)
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