September has unexpectedly begun with the return of trade issues and turmoil around the federal appeals court decision, which upheld the original ruling that Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are illegal. The case will be referred to the Supreme Court. While suspending tariffs would mean potential savings for exporters, the return of uncertainty itself may slow down some business activity, as companies wait for clarity before pursuing major projects.
On Tuesday, however, key macroeconomic releases will compete for investors’ attention, particularly important for volatility in U.S. and European indices as well as EURUSD. In Europe, we await Eurozone inflation data, which should reinforce the ECB’s decision to halt further easing.
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appIn the U.S., the ISM and PMI manufacturing reports will be published, with the employment sub-index playing an important role in setting the tone before the upcoming labor market data. Oil market volatility may also be influenced by today’s speech from Trump, should he address Ukraine or sanctions on buyers of Russian oil.
Economic calendar for today:
08:00 BST, Spain – Labor market data for August:
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Change in unemployment rate in Spain: forecast 14.2K; previous -1.4K
10:00 BST, Eurozone – Inflation data for August:
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HICP excl. energy & food: previous -0.1% m/m
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HICP excl. energy & food: previous 2.4% y/y
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CPI: previous 0.0% m/m
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CPI: forecast 2.1% y/y; previous 2.0% y/y
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Core CPI: previous -0.2% m/m
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Core CPI: forecast 2.2% y/y; previous 2.3% y/y
12:30 BST, Eurozone – Speech by ECB’s Elderson
14:45 BST, United States – PMI report for August:
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Manufacturing PMI: forecast 53.3; previous 49.8
15:00 BST, United States – ISM data for August:
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ISM Manufacturing Index: forecast 65.1; previous 64.8
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ISM Manufacturing Index: forecast 49.0; previous 48.0
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ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: previous 47.1
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ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: previous 43.4
15:00 BST, United States – Inflation data for July:
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Construction spending: forecast -0.1% m/m; previous -0.4% m/m
15:00 BST, Germany – Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel
15:00 BST, United States – Total vehicle sales for August:
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Previous 16.40M
18:00 BST, United States – GDP data:
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow model (Q3): forecast 3.5%; previous 3.5%
18:00 BST, United States – Auction of 52-month Treasury bills:
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Previous 3.760%
19:00 BST, United States – Speech by President Donald Trump
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