The dovish speech by the Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole symposium triggered major market reshuffling, as expectations of rate cuts returned and risk appetite rose sharply. On the other hand, investors are cautious about very aggressive pricing of further cuts, considering the series of inflation and labor market data to be released before the September FOMC.
The post–Jackson Hole excitement should stabilize during today’s session due to the lack of significant macroeconomic data releases. In the nearly empty calendar, we will find the German Ifo business sentiment report, Polish retail sales, and U.S. real estate market data. Nevertheless, after Friday’s moves, volatility should remain subdued today.
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Economic calendar for today:
07:30 BST, Switzerland – labor market data:
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Employment level (Q2): previous 5.512M
09:00 BST, Germany – Ifo report for August:
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Business expectations: forecast 90.2; previous 90.7
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Current conditions: forecast 86.7; previous 86.5
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Business climate index: forecast 88.7; previous 88.6
09:00 BST, Poland – retail sales data for July:
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Retail sales: forecast 3.5% y/y; previous 2.1% y/y
13:00 BST, United States – real estate and construction sector for July:
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Building permits: forecast -2.8% m/m; previous -0.1% m/m
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Building permits (total): forecast 1.354M; previous 1.393M
14:30 BST, Germany – Speech by Balz from Bundesbank
15:00 BST, United States – new home sales for July:
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Total: forecast 635K; previous 627K
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Change: previous +0.6% m/m
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