Today’s trading session will be marked by numerous public statements from representatives of major central banks, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and members of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) and the Bank of England. In Asian markets, the key release was Japan’s Service Producer Price Index (SPPI) for June, which came in at 3.7% year-over-year versus an expected 3.6% (previous: 3.6%), indicating a slight acceleration in price pressures in the services sector. The Bank of Japan also released the minutes from its meeting, in which members discussed the need for a gradual normalization of monetary policy and the inflationary risks associated with a weak yen. Meanwhile, China’s Minister of Commerce announced the extension of the trade truce with the U.S. through January 2027.
The macroeconomic data calendar is exceptionally light today, and investors’ attention is focused on the rhetoric of central bankers.
Key releases from the Asian session:
- Japan – SPPI (y/y) (September): result 3.7% vs. consensus 3.6% (previous 3.6%). The reading slightly exceeded forecasts, confirming the persistence of core inflation in the services sector.
- Japan – Bank of Japan meeting minutes: discussions among board members point to the need for a gradual reduction in monetary support in light of the risk of rising inflation expectations.
- China – Industrial Profits (YTD) (August): the reading came in at 15.7% (previously 17.6%), with the monthly year-over-year growth rate at 4.2%.
Macroeconomic Calendar
- 12:00 UK – Speech by MPC member Ramsden.
- 14:15 US – Speech by FOMC member Bowman.
- 3:30 p.m. Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde.
- 7:25 p.m. U.S. – Speech by FOMC member Cook.
- 7:30 p.m. U.S. – Speech by FOMC member Barkin.
Markets to Watch
- EUR/USD - Anticipation of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and afternoon remarks by FOMC members may trigger increased volatility in the major currency pair.
- USD/JPY - The release of the Bank of Japan meeting minutes and a stronger-than-expected reading of the Japanese SPPI are keeping investors’ attention focused on the outlook for interest rate policy in Japan.
- U.S. Treasury Bonds – A series of scheduled speeches by Federal Reserve members this afternoon and evening may influence pricing of the future path of interest rates and Treasury bond yields.
- GOLD – Significant declines at the start, reaching over 2%. Will this momentum continue in the second half of the day?
Weekly Calendar:
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Morning Wrap: “Black Monday” for the gold market; price drops more than 2%🚨
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