The Wednesday session on the financial markets was dominated by the US Federal Reserve's decision. The FOMC decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range. However, the updated dot plot turned out to be hawkish, suggesting a rate hike in 2026. At the same time, only half of the Fed members see rate cuts, and Powell himself tried to downplay the significance of the dot plot tool, announcing upcoming changes to forecasts.
Ultimately, this triggered a sharp rise in US Treasury yields and pushed the Dollar Index (DXY) back above the 100-point mark. On the geopolitical front, investors are closely monitoring the signing of a US government memorandum regarding Middle East relations, which is stabilizing sentiment; however, US equity markets closed lower in reaction to the Fed's hawkish tone. Today's session will bring immense volatility to the currency market, with the spotlight on interest rate decisions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE), which will directly impact CHF and GBP pairs.
Key Releases from the Asian and Early European Sessions
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New Zealand recorded a solid economic rebound in the first quarter of 2026. GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter compared to 0.5% in the previous period (revised up from 0.2%), while the annual growth rate remained at 1.5%, despite expectations of a slowdown to 1.1%.
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The UK labor market showed signs of stabilization. The unemployment rate for April decreased to 4.9%, alongside solid employment growth of 100k jobs (vs. the forecast of 75k). Wage pressure remained high, with the Average Earnings Index (including bonuses) coming in at 4.4% YoY.
Macroeconomic Calendar (BST)
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08:30 | Switzerland – SNB Interest Rate Decision. Consensus: 0.00%. Previous: 0.00%.
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09:00 | Switzerland – SNB Press Conference.
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12:00 | United Kingdom – BoE Interest Rate Decision. Consensus: 3.75%. Previous: 3.75%. An 8-to-1 vote split in favor of holding rates is expected.
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13:30 | USA – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Consensus: 225k. Previous: 229k.
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15:30 | USA – Natural Gas Storage Change. Consensus: +82 bcf. Previous: 108 bcf.
Corporate Earnings
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Accenture (ACN) – Pre-market
Three Markets to Watch
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CHF (Swiss Franc) – The SNB decision will be a key volatility driver. The bank remains in a challenging position due to commodity pressures and geopolitical risks, forcing potential currency interventions to curb excessive appreciation of the Franc.
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GBP (British Pound) – The Bank of England faces the challenge of still-elevated inflation, which has nonetheless slowed to 2.8%, preventing immediate pressure for rate hikes. An 8-to-1 vote split is expected, which could be perceived as dovish following recent large disparities.
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US Treasuries (T-Note) – Bond yields surged dynamically following the hawkish FOMC statement. Today we are seeing a slight rebound in bond prices, but volatility could return with the upcoming US data releases.
Chart of the Day: GBPUSD ahead of BoE decision (18.06.2026)
Morning Wrap – Market Returns to Normalcy After Hawkish Fed Forecasts and a Mixed Warsh (11.08.2026)
A new era for the Fed
Fed Shocks Markets: Slower Growth, Inflation Surge, and Rates "Higher for Longer"
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