The beginning of the week brought further news from the Middle East, which weighed on the rise in energy commodity prices. Today, we are observing a certain retracement in this regard.
Today, attention may finally shift toward macroeconomic data, driven by the Eurozone HICP inflation (10:00 AM) and JOLTS data from the US labor market (3:00 PM).
Asian Session
- South Korean CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in May, its highest level since March 2024, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike at the upcoming BoK meeting (July 16).
- The country's current account surplus also increased (to a record level of $37.3 billion). This was largely due to a massive surge in exports (up 53.2% y/y) driven by the semiconductor sector boom.
- On the other hand, Australia recorded its largest current account deficit in history ($19.4 billion). It was primarily driven by a massive spike in imports fueled by large-scale investments in data center infrastructure.
- It is also worth noting the announced 5.97% increase in the national minimum wage and a 4.75% increase in sector (“award”) specific wages. Australia has over 100 "awards" – each with separate minimum terms of employment and pay (separate minimum rates for hospitality, construction, IT, etc.).
Macroeconomic Calendar
Eurozone: HICP Inflation (May)
- Time: 11:00 AM
- Consensus: 3.2%
- Previous reading: 3%
Poland: Interest Rate Decision
- Time: Afternoon hours
- Consensus: Pause
United States: JOLTS Data (April)
- Time: 4:00 PM
- Consensus: 6.860M
- Previous reading: 6.866M
Earnings
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)
- Dollar General (DG.US)
- Victoria’s Secret (VSCO.US)
- GitLab (GTLB.US)
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)
3 Markets to Watch
- US Dollar (USD) – Ahead of us is the release of JOLTS data (4:00 PM), the first of the significant US labor market readings scheduled for this week.
- Euro (EUR) – May inflation data should not come as a major surprise (as we previously received readings from individual Eurozone economies), but it could seal the ECB's June interest rate hike.
- Crude Oil and LNG – Headlines regarding the situation in the Middle East remain highly inconsistent, so it is very possible we face another day of elevated volatility in commodities.
—
Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XT
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