Economic Calendar: Market awaits Fed and BoE decisions (15.09.2026)

Although Monday brought a minor tremor to the market on the back of rising oil prices and an appeal from AI leaders, macroeconomic developments were relatively subdued. Attention focused primarily on inflation data from Canada. Tuesday opened with readings from China and the United Kingdom, which attracted significantly greater market focus.

Investors, however, are above all awaiting Wednesday’s decision from the Federal Reserve. Indications suggest that on Wednesday at 7:00 PM it will announce its first rate hike since July 2023.

For a long time, there was doubt as to whether the committee would indeed opt for such a step, particularly given the less-than-credible messaging from the new Chair, Kevin Warsh. Currently, however, markets are pricing it at over 90%.

Figure 1: Change in Market-Implied Probability of a September Fed Rate Hike (2025 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026

Markets could interpret a pause as the Fed ceding to pressure from Donald Trump, who has been vocal in expressing his preference for lower interest rates. This would most likely trigger a further increase in long-term bond yields and a resurgence of the debasement trade, a strategy based on shifting away from traditional fiat currencies towards hard assets with limited supply, including precious metals and Bitcoin. This would certainly not be positive news for the US dollar following a relatively successful period.

A rate increase does not, however, guarantee an appreciation of the US currency. Given that such a move is nearly fully priced in, a relatively hawkish and, crucially, credible narrative is also required. Should Warsh fail to convince markets once again, expectations for subsequent hikes could diminish, putting downward pressure on the greenback.

Figure 2: Market-Implied Fed Policy Rate Path (2026 - 2027)

Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026

What supports a rate hike?

The August inflation figures themselves held no surprises on an annual basis, pointing to underlying inflationary pressure that remains modest (core CPI at 2.4% YoY, excluding volatile energy and food prices). On a month-on-month basis, however, inflation accelerated slightly to 0.3%, which markets perceived as a cause for concern. FOMC policymakers may nevertheless be most concerned by services sector inflation (3.1%), which could be driven by increasingly dynamic wage growth. The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker rose in August to 4.1%, its highest level since October 2025 (though, to present the full picture, this still represents less than 1% in real terms).

Figure 3: CPI Inflation in the United States (2026 - 2027)

Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026

Christopher Waller highlighted a week earlier that the August reading could prove decisive for the committee's final decision, tipping the balance one way or the other. While the data provided no definitive answer, markets interpreted the results as a precursor to a hawkish pivot.

🌏 Key macroeconomic publications

Monday

Canada

• CPI inflation remained at 3.0% YoY in August, matching consensus expectations and unchanged from July. The core rate was markedly lower at 2.4% YoY. Fuel prices surged by 22.8% on an annual basis.
• It is worth recalling that earlier in the month the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold for the seventh consecutive meeting.

Tuesday

United Kingdom

• The ILO unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, below the consensus forecast of 5.0%.
• Wage growth (including bonuses) rose by 3.9% (in line with expectations), following an upward revision of the previous reading to 4.2% from 4.1%. Regular wage growth (excluding bonuses) remained at 3.5%.
• Claimant count entries rose by 27.8k, substantially exceeding expected levels (+8.3k).
• The pound's reaction was muted, with GBP/EUR falling by less than 0.1%.
• Markets are currently pricing in approximately a one-in-four chance of a rate hike by the BoE, anticipating upward moves in November and December.

Figure 4: Market-Implied BoE Policy Rate Path (2026 - 2027)

Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026

China

• Industrial production accelerated in August to 5.2% YoY (up from 4.5% in July), driven in part by exports linked to the global expansion of AI infrastructure.
• Retail sales slowed to 0.4% YoY (below expectations of 0.8%), fixed-asset investment dropped by 7.2% year-to-date, and urban unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5.3%.
• The main drag on consumption remains the collapse in auto sales (-18.5% YoY) following the phase-out of subsidies.
• The PBOC set a stronger yuan fixing for a fifth consecutive day today (at 6.7670/USD), capping volatility ahead of the Xi-Trump summit scheduled for 24.09.2026. This marks the longest such streak since December 2025.

📆 Macroeconomic calendar

Tuesday

• Poland: August CPI inflation (final revision)
  • Time: 8:30 AM
  • Preliminary reading: 3.4%
• Germany: September ZEW Index
  • Time: 10:00 AM
  • Consensus: 39.8
  • Previous reading: 34.2

Wednesday

• United Kingdom: August CPI inflation
  • Time: 7:00 AM
  • Consensus: 3.1%
  • Previous reading: 2.9%

🗂️ Corporate Earnings

No major earnings releases scheduled.

3 Markets to Watch

• OIL: Brent crude breached 107 USD per barrel following Saudi Arabia's closure of the East-West pipeline, which served as a bypass for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Energy Secretary anticipates a swift return to operation for the infrastructure, though AP reports a potential outage lasting several weeks.
• TNOTE: The 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. The increase is driven by rising energy prices and growing debt in both the public and private sectors.
• GBPUSD: Sterling remains under pressure despite the unexpectedly low unemployment rate, with the market focusing on rising claimant count entries and tomorrow's CPI release, which, alongside Thursday's BoE decision, will determine the pair's trajectory.

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XT