Economic calendar: U.S. Q4 data in focus (27.03.2025)

Thursday will be packed with data from the U.S. (quarterly GDP, PCE, jobless claims, gas inventory changes) as well as speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) representatives. The final U.S. GDP reading for Q4 may attract investor attention following the OECD’s recent downgrade of U.S. growth forecasts. The quarterly PCE data will serve as a prelude to tomorrow’s February reading.

ECB members' speeches will be significant due to the growing diversity of opinions regarding the April interest rate decision. Over the past week, the ECB has sent many dovish signals (Stournaras, Cipollone), but several bankers still emphasize the existence of two-sided risks (Wunsch).

Economic calendar for today (GMT):

• 08:00, Slovakia - Producer Price Inflation (February):

  • Monthly PPI: previous 0.4% m/m

  • Annual PPI: previous -2.5% y/y

• 09:00, Eurozone - Money Supply M3:

  • Forecast: 3.7%

  • Previous: 3.6%

• 09:00, Germany - Speech by Buch, Vice President of the German Bundesbank

• 10:00, Eurozone - EU Economic Forecasts

• 12:30, United States - Labor Market Data:

  • Jobless claims: forecast 1.890K; previous 1.892K

  • 4-week average jobless claims: previous 227.00K

  • Initial jobless claims: forecast 225K; previous 223K

• 12:30, United States - Trade Balance (February):

  • Goods trade balance: forecast -134.60B; previous -155.57B

• 12:30, United States - GDP Data:

  • GDP (q/q) (Q4): forecast 2.3%; previous 3.1%

  • GDP sales (Q4): forecast 3.2%; previous 3.3%

  • GDP deflator (q/q) (Q4): forecast 2.4%; previous 1.9%

• 12:30, United States - Inflation Data:

  • Real consumer spending (Q4): forecast 4.2%; previous 3.7%

  • Core PCE price index (Q4): forecast 2.70%; previous 2.20%

  • PCE price index (Q4): forecast 2.4%; previous 1.5%

• 12:30, United States - Corporate Profits (q/q) (Q4)

• 12:30, United States - Wholesale Inventories (February):

  • Forecast: 0.7% m/m

  • Previous: 0.8% m/m

  • Excluding autos: previous 0.5%

• 13:00, Eurozone - Speech by ECB Representative de Guindos

• 14:00, United States - Pending Home Sales Index (February):

  • Previous: 70.6

• 14:00, United States - Pending Home Sales (February):

  • Forecast: 0.9% m/m

  • Previous: -4.6% m/m

• 17:00, United States - 7-Year Treasury Note Auction:

  • Previous: 4.194%

• 17:40, Eurozone - Speech by ECB’s Schnabel

• 18:05, Eurozone - Speech by ECB President Lagarde

• 20:30, United States - Reserve Balances at Federal Reserve Banks:

  • Previous: 3.425T

• 20:30, United States - Federal Reserve Balance Sheet:

  • Previous: 6.756B