Economic calendar: UK jobs data to attract attention

Summary:

• UK jobs report for October/November seems to be the most important release today
• Hungarian central bank is expected to stay on hold
• A bag of US data including housing market, industrial output and JOLTS

9:30 am GMT - UK jobs report for October/November: The British pound gained a lot in the run-up to the UK election held last week. However, it’s been punched this morning after the news that Johnson wants to guarantee the Brexit transition period won’t be extended beyond 2020, notwithstanding a trade deal hammered out with the EU. While this thread seems play a salient role, it’s worth looking at economic releases anyway. The consensus suggests average weekly earnings increased 3.4% YoY in three months through October, while earnings excluding bonuses rose 3.9% at the same time. Moreover, the unemployment rate is expected to have ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8%.

1:00 pm GMT - Hungarian rate decision: No one expects the Hungarian central bank will change rates at its final meeting this year even as headline inflation keeps hovering above 3% YoY, the central bank’s price objective. Either way, along with the meeting a new set of macroeconomic projections will also be unveiled and it may turn out key once it foretells inflation momentum won’t fade away utterly over the projection horizon. 

1:30/2:15/3:00 pm GMT - Building permits and housing starts/industrial production/JOLTS from the US November/November/October: There will be a slew of economic releases from the US economy this afternoon. In the case of housing data the consensus assumes a slight improvement to 1345k when it comes to housing starts and a minor deterioration to 1418k as for building permits. In turn, industrial output is expected to have risen 0.8% MoM in the past month, after falling as deep as 0.8% MoM in October, the worst reading since mid-2009. Last but not least, JOLTS or a number of vacancies to fill in the economy, is anticipated to have decreased in October to 7009k from 7024k previously. Although it’s a lagging indicator it could tell us a lot as far as employers’ hiring intentions are concerned. 

Central bankers’ speeches: 

• 8:00 am GMT - ECB’s Rehn

• 12:00 pm GMT - ECB’s Kazimir

• 1:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Kaplan

• 1:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Lane

• 5:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Rosengren

• 7:15 pm GMT - BoE’s Carney