Economic Calendar: Will NFP Move the Market? (07.08.2026)

It has been a quiet week in terms of macroeconomics. It is no secret that the revisions of PMI indices, Swiss inflation, or the Czech National Bank's interest rate decision did not generate much excitement among investors.

Neither JOLTS nor ADP data introduced significant market volatility. Under normal conditions, these are considered a valuable supplement to NFP rather than a primary source of volatility. This is particularly relevant as the former are published with a one-month lag (on Wednesday we received data for June, not July as in the case of other labor market readings), and the latter, after the pandemic period, ceased to show a strong correlation with NFP and lost significance.

"NFP" has appeared in this text twice already. Not by accident. It is absolutely the most important macroeconomic reading of this week and will most likely be one of the most frequently appearing words in the analyses we publish today (and certainly the most popular acronym).

We remind you that the report is published almost always on the first Friday of the month at 1:30 PM. This time is no different.

The data should overshadow corporate results published before the opening of the US session. This will not be overly difficult, as the giants who informed us about their Q2 performance in the first part of the week will not be sharing reports today. Publications from Under Armour, Take-Two Interactive, and Wendy’s should arouse the most interest.

What to Know Before the July NFP?

Since the Fed must consider both price stability and maximum employment, signs of cooling in the US labor market could lead to further dovish revisions regarding the expected interest rate path in the USA. The ADP and JOLTS data published this week point to this to some extent – both readings came in below market expectations. As mentioned, however, these are either secondary data under normal conditions (like ADP) or significantly lagged (like JOLTS).

Figure 1: NFP and ISM PMI Employment Component (2020 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 07.08.2026

Economists, in turn, have had a tendency in recent years to underestimate the number of new jobs in non-farm sectors. The NFP reading in as many as 35 of the last 50 months turned out to be better than expected. Moreover, despite the weak reading in June (57k), the 3-month moving average remains at a healthy level (111k).

Major Macroeconomic Publications

Thursday

USA

Yesterday's data were consistent with a labor market picture characterized by low layoffs but also a low level of new hires (low fire-low hire).

• US initial jobless claims came in below the consensus (199k), which brought their 4-week average to the same level.
• Moreover, the Challenger Job Cuts report showed a decrease in planned corporate layoffs to 33.4k (the lowest level since July 2024).

Czech Republic

The Czech National Bank kept interest rates unchanged yesterday (3.75%). The decision was widely expected. However, the market expected that after the June rate hike, the bank would maintain a sharp, hawkish narrative (resulting from, among other factors, rising wages, dynamic lending activity, and sticky core inflation in services remaining close to 3%).

Governor Ales Michl's conference had an unexpectedly dovish tone. The Governor devoted significant attention to the risks of economic slowdown (including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East).

• Markets reduced interest rate hike valuations to less than one by mid-2027.

Macroeconomic Calendar

Friday

• Mexico: CPI Inflation (July)
  • Time: 1:00 PM
  • Previous: 3.4%
  • Consensus: 3.1%
• USA: NFP – Non-farm Payroll Employment Change (July)
  • Time: 1:30 PM
  • Previous: 57k
  • Consensus: 85k
• USA: Wage Growth (July)
  • Time: 1:30 PM
  • Previous: 3.5%
  • Consensus: 3.5%
• USA: Unemployment Rate (July)
  • Time: 1:30 PM
  • Previous: 4.2%
  • Consensus: 4.2%
• Canada: Wage Growth (July)
  • Time: 1:30 PM
  • Previous: 3.7%
• USA: 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)
  • Time: 4:00 PM
  • Previous: 3.7%
• CFTC Report
  • Time: 8:30 PM

Corporate Earnings Reports

• Canopy Growth Corporation ($CGC.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Under Armour Inc ($UAA.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Oklo Inc. ($OKLO.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Take-Two Interactive Software ($TTWO.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Wendy's Co ($WEN.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Vistra Corp ($VST.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Riot Platforms Inc ($RIOT.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
• Phunware Inc ($PHUN.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
• Globus Maritime Ltd ($GLBS.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
• Sharplink Inc. ($SBET.US) – After Market Close (AMC)

3 Markets to Watch

• OIL: Oil and gas prices are heading upwards despite progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman. As part of the agreement negotiated with Oman aimed at managing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran aims to introduce a total ban on the flow of US and Israeli vessels and introduce a new fee system covering insurance and environmental costs. Moreover, Tehran is demanding that hostile countries pay special compensation in exchange for restoring shipping.
• EURUSD: Ahead of us is the key NFP data release for the main currency pair. If the data proves strong, EURUSD could again find itself below the 1.15 level. Further growth in oil prices may also support the dollar.
• US100: Today's NFP data release will also play a very important role for the US stock market. After a very strong start to the week, the index gave back some of the gains recorded thanks to the return of relatively positive sentiment towards companies in the semiconductor sector.