EIA raises oil price forecasts 🍳 What did the STEO report show?

EIA published its latest STEO report today and significantly raised its oil price forecasts, while at the same time assuming a gradual improvement in flows through the Strait of Hormuz and higher supply in the coming months. Oil production in the Middle East is expected to increase as flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recover. At the same time, the agency assumes that some export constraints in the region will persist through the end of 2026.

EIA raised its 2026 average WTI price forecast to $84.65 per barrel from $80.88, while its Brent forecast was increased to $91.01 from $86.81.
For 2027, the WTI forecast was raised to $69.74 from $65.39, while Brent was revised up to $73.74 from $69.39.
Global oil production in 2026 is expected to average 100.6 million bpd, compared with the previous forecast of 100.8 million bpd. For 2027, EIA expects 109.9 million bpd, up from 109.7 million previously.
Global oil demand in 2026 is forecast at 102.6 million bpd, compared with 102.7 million previously, while the 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 105 million bpd.
U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 13.83 million bpd in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast, and 14.26 million bpd in 2027, up from 14.15 million previously.
In the near term, U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise from 13.88 million bpd in August to 13.96 million in September, before averaging around 13.95 million bpd in October.
U.S. oil demand in 2026 remains forecast at 20.6 million bpd, while the 2027 estimate stands at 20.8 million bpd.
U.S. natural gas production is expected to average 111.7 Bcf/d in 2026 and 115.9 Bcf/d in 2027. Gas demand for 2026 was raised to 92.2 Bcf/d, while the 2027 forecast was lowered to 94.3 Bcf/d.

OIL.WTI Chart (D1 interval)

Source: xStation5

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