The EUR/USD pair is consolidating after climbing to levels not seen since February 2022, yet it continues to trade near its 39-month highs. The euro remains supported by growing concerns over U.S. consumer strength, coupled with a gradual recovery in the European economy—expected to be further boosted in the coming quarters by a fiscal plan targeting infrastructure and defense investments.
Even the dovish stance of the ECB and its latest rate cut failed to trigger a significant pullback in the pair, as the dollar continues to weaken against the euro. Looking at the daily chart, a clear upward trend is visible, with the pair rising from local lows around 1.02 to the current 1.13.
If a 1:1 correction scenario unfolds, a test of the 1.12 area cannot be ruled out. However, this would likely require a meaningful easing of fears over an escalating trade war, which threatens to push the U.S. economy into recession. The RSI indicator has cooled slightly, dropping from near 80 to 71. Today, volatility remains limited due to the Good Friday holiday and reduced market activity.
Source: xStation5
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