Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the US economy appears to be strengthening noticeably in the second half of 2026, while the labor market remains “solid and stable” despite a slower pace of job creation. At the same time, he stressed that inflation remains too high and has been above the Fed’s target for around five and a half years, increasing the risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored. Waller also pointed to persistent sources of price pressure, including the AI investment boom and the ongoing energy shock.
In his view, additional rate hikes will likely be needed if incoming data evolve as expected, although increases do not have to come at every consecutive meeting. Such a message remains relatively supportive for the US dollar, as it reinforces expectations that US interest rates could stay higher for longer and may limit the potential for a rebound in EURUSD. Waller also noted that the positive impact of AI on productivity is so far visible mainly in anecdotal evidence rather than in official economic data.
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