A conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has just begun. Below are the most important comments made by the banker:
- I don't feel need to move quickly on rates.
- Job gains have slowed, downside employment risks have risen.
- Unemployment remains low but has edged up.
- Activity in housing sector remains weak.
- Moderation in GDP growth largely reflects consumer spending slowdown.
- Moderation in growth largely reflects consumer slowdown.
- Inflation has risen recently, remains somewhat elevated.
- Inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs, but somewhat elevated.
- Labor demand has softened.
- Good part of jobs slowing reflects labor force decline.
- Payroll job gains have slowed significantly, reflecting lower immigration and lower participation.
- Unemployment remains little changed over past year.
- Base case is tariff impact on inflation short-lived.
- Risk of persistent inflation from tariffs needs to be managed and assesssed.
- Overall effect of tariffs on inflation remain to be seen.
- Changes to policy evolve and effects on economy uncertain.
- Beyond next year most inflation-expectation measures consistent with 2% goal.
- Inflation for goods has picked up, disinflation for services continuing.
- It's possible tariffs are a reason for some slowing in labor market.
- Labor market changes are mostly from immigration changes.
- I can no longer say the labor market is solid.
Powell, during the press conference, is trying to cool investor sentiment and emphasize the Fed’s data dependence. The dollar is slightly strengthening, and EURUSD is reducing gains made right after the decision was released.
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