InPost shares fall following the release of the latest results amid ongoing dispute with Allegro.

InPost published its results for the second quarter of 2025, which failed to meet analysts’ expectations and received mixed reactions from investors. The company’s adjusted EBITDA amounted to PLN 1 billion, slightly above the market consensus of PLN 990 million. Revenues increased by as much as 34.7% year-on-year, reaching PLN 3.5 billion, which is definitely encouraging and demonstrates further expansion and growing scale of operations. However, the decline in net profit is concerning, as it amounted to PLN 254 million, which is 21% less than a year earlier and also below the forecasted PLN 322.7 million.

Financial results for Q2 2025:

• Net profit: PLN 254 million (-21% y/y, forecast: PLN 322.7 million)
• Revenues: PLN 3.5 billion (+34.7% y/y)
• Adjusted EBITDA: PLN 1 billion (+12% y/y, forecast: PLN 990 million)
• EBITDA margin: 28.2% (decline of over 5 percentage points)
• Parcel volume: 324 million (+23% y/y), with a significant portion coming from international markets

The drop in InPost’s share price following the results publication is partly due to concerns about cost pressures, particularly related to the integration of the British courier company Yodel, which affects profitability. Additionally, analysts point to a clear slowdown in parcel volume growth in the Polish market, which fell from 10% in Q1 to 6% currently. Combined with increasing competition and price pressure, these factors limit the potential for profitability improvement.

Negative sentiment is also influenced by the ongoing legal dispute with Allegro. InPost demands payment of a contractual penalty of nearly PLN 99 million, accusing Allegro of obstructing customers from choosing delivery via InPost. Allegro rejects these allegations, and the case is expected to be resolved in arbitration court by the end of 2026. Despite this, both companies continue operational cooperation, especially during the pre-holiday period.

The main driver of InPost’s revenue growth was the performance in international markets, particularly in the United Kingdom. For the first time, over half of InPost Group’s revenues came from outside Poland, confirming the effectiveness of the company’s international strategy emphasized by its management. In the second quarter of 2025, InPost delivered 324 million parcels, representing a 23% increase compared to the same period last year.

The largest growth was recorded in the UK, where revenues rose by as much as 177% year-on-year. This was primarily the result of integrating the British courier company Yodel, which joined the InPost Group and significantly strengthened its presence in the local market. Growth was also seen in the eurozone segment (+10% y/y), covering markets such as France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, and Italy.

Despite challenges in the domestic market and cost pressures, InPost plans further aggressive expansion and aims to install over 14,000 new parcel lockers in 2025. A significant portion of these devices will be deployed to international markets, with particular focus on the UK, the Benelux countries, and the Iberian Peninsula. The company expects this to drive revenue growth of 30–40% and EBITDA growth of 20–25% for the full year. This strategy highlights the key importance of international expansion as the main growth engine of the company, which can offset challenges and slowdown in the Polish market.

Source: xStation5