JOIN LIVE: Nvidia results loom large

17:54 28 May 2025

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Expectations are for strong demand, and the 26% rally in Nvidia’s stock price so far this year suggests that the market is not pricing in a weak earnings report this evening. We doubt that the market will be too off the mark when it comes to revenue expectations, instead the focus could shift to the cost of curbs to selling chips to China, which came into effect last quarter.

Nvidia’s share price jumped sharply on Tuesday, as risk assets rallied, led by US tech. The stock price is up just a touch in pre-market trading on Wednesday, and we expect the share price to remain calm in the lead up to the results. The average move in the stock 1 day after results for the last 8 quarters has been 8.5%, so the bias is for a move higher in the stock price, if earnings can exceed expectations and $140, the high from February, could be in focus.

Nvidia results will also be important for the overall Magnificent 7, which has experienced a change in leadership in recent weeks. Nvidia was one of the weakest big tech firms for most of this year, however, in the past month its recovery has been rapid. It has gone from zero to hero, and it is now the second best performer in the Magnificent 7, behind Tesla. This is a sign that AI is once again a key driver of big tech stocks, and Nvidia results could determine 1, the strength of AI demand, and 2, whether the recovery in AI stocks can continue.

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