Low rainfall in Argentina/historic crops in the US - what's next for CORN?

15:40 18 August 2023

The heavy rainfall associated with the weather phenomenon known as El Nino is not likely to begin in Argentina until October, which could affect the maize planting season in some parts of the country and the corn (CORN) prices themselves on the exchanges. 

Water is needed in many maize-growing areas where soil moisture levels are low, following the devastating drought that limited agricultural production in the 2022/23 season. In this matter, the situation looks negative for many regions, as analysts assume that many farmers will delay sowing or even abandon these plans altogether if there is not enough rain.

On the other hand, however, it is worth remembering that recent sessions have brought dynamic falls in maize prices due to expectations of a surge in US production.

"The US continues to push corn prices lower given higher production than previously forecast, which is expected to lead to oversupply," - said Darren Stetzel, vice president of agriculture in Asia at brokerage firm StoneX.

The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) weekly report, released after the close of trading on Monday, rated 59% of the corn crop as good or excellent. This was up from 57% a week ago and above analysts' estimates of 58%. Crop acreage alone this year is oscillating close to the zone of historical peaks of the past 20 years. Source: USDA

CORN quotations remain in the zone of important support levels marked by the 2021 price reactions. Source: xStation 5

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