MACRO: US jobless claims fall to lowest since pandemic started

18:16 25 March 2021
  • US weekly jobless claims fall to 1-year low
  • 19 million Americans is still receiving unemployment checks

Latest data from the US labour market showed that weekly jobless claims dropped to 684 k, lowest level since pandemic began in March 2020. It was the first reading which was not affected by the recent severe winter storms in Texas and other parts of the densely populated South region. Today's reading came in well below analysts expectations of 730k which at first glance may indicate an accelerating recovery of the labour market. 

Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic hit the labor market in March 2020, however claims are still far from the 200k level reported back in February 2020. Source: dol.gov
 

However, the number of pandemic emergency claims reached a new record high, even despite the fact that continuing claims retreated below 4 million. 

Pandemic emergency claims jumped to new all-time highs while continuing claims continue to decline. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
 

Also the number of unemployed people which received benefits under all government programs returned above 19 million which may be a sign that the labour market recovery is still vulnerable.

Still 19 million of Americans require some form of government aid. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge
 

It will be interesting to see what will happen next. From one side, claims are expected to fall in the coming weeks following the approval of President Biden's relief package and as several states ease coronavirus-induced restrictions amid the rapid pace of vaccination. On the other side, rising number of new Covid-19 cases and enormous fiscal stimulus, which extended government-funded unemployment aid, including a $300 weekly supplement until beginning of September, could keep claims elevated as some US citizens will most likely reapply for benefits.

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