Market Wrap: Tech lifts Europe to new record highs! Metals keep rallying despite stagnant USD (07.08.2026)

Indices and Companies:

• Futures on the broad European Stoxx 50 index (EU50: +0.6%) hit new records today (at 6,560 pts) and will likely close a third consecutive week of gains, supported by better-than-expected results from many key businesses in Europe.

• German DAX futures (DE40: +0.7%) are leading gains in Europe, followed by the British FTSE 100 (UK100: +0.6%), Swiss SMI (SUI20: +0.6%), Dutch AEX (NED25: +0.4%), Italian FTSE MIB (ITA40: +0.4%), French CAC 40 (FRA40: 0.2%), and Spanish IBEX 35 (SPA35: +0.2%).

• DAX: gains in Germany are mainly driven by tech giants (SAP: +3.9%, Infineon: +3%) and Siemens rebounding after earnings (+2.3%). On the other hand, automakers are lagging (Daimler: -3.5%, Porsche: -1%, Volkswagen: -0.4%) along with Rheinmetall (-0.6%). Deutsche Telekom (-1.2%) is erasing part of yesterday's post-earnings gains.

• Allianz: In Q2, Allianz generated €4.87 billion in operating profit, beating market forecasts (€4.58 billion). The company maintained its full-year profit target range of €16.4–18.4 billion and is continuing its €2.5 billion share buyback program (€1.4 billion completed in H1). Net third-party asset inflows at PIMCO reached €32 billion. Sentiment was somewhat dampened by weaker-than-expected insurance results. The stock has erased most of its early-session losses and is currently down a marginal 0.3%.

Economy and Geopolitics:

• Trump stated that "[Fed Chair] Kevin Warsh is great and I won't criticize him."

• St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that he favored a 25 bps rate hike at the July meeting (the Fed held rates steady at 3.5–3.75%). He noted that earlier, gradual moves are less costly and prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored, adding that the central bank should be ready to surprise markets.

• Industrial production in Germany rose by 0.2% MoM (-0.1% YoY) in June, and by 0.7% on a three-month basis. The main growth drivers were the automotive sector (+3.6%) and transport equipment (+8.4%). Growth was dragged down by declines in machinery manufacturing (-3.9%) and energy-intensive industries (-1.8%). Industry excluding energy and construction remained unchanged.

• German exports rose 0.9% MoM in June to a record €139.3 billion (+6.6% YoY), while imports jumped 4.4% MoM to €123.9 billion. The trade surplus narrowed to €15.4 billion (from €19.3 billion in May). Exports to the US fell 14.2% MoM, whereas imports from China rose 9.1%.

• France's trade deficit widened to €19.2 billion in Q2 2026. Imports jumped 5.5% (mainly due to higher hydrocarbon prices caused by the war in Iran), outpacing export growth (3.1%), which was driven primarily by the aerospace sector. Despite the overall deterioration in the trade balance, France managed to increase its global market share.

Despite a strong month-on-month rebound, annual production growth is bordering on stagnation. Source: XTB Research based on Macrobond data

FX, Metals, Energy:

• The US Dollar Index (USDIDX) remains in limbo ahead of the release of the key US labor market report (NFP). The strongest G10 currency today is the Franc, and the weakest is the Pound. USDJPY is down 0.1% but remains about 2% above the low formed following intervention by Tokyo and Washington. EURUSD is gaining 0.1% to 1.1530.

• Brent crude futures (OIL) are down 2.1% to $81.80 per barrel following reports that the US, Iran, and Oman are "nearing an agreement" on the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

• Precious metals extend their winning streak despite a lack of volatility in the dollar. Gold gains 1.8% to $4,320 per ounce, while silver adds 4.6% to $64.40, its highest level since late June.

EURUSD is glued to the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA100; dark purple) ahead of the NFP data release. Gold quotes in yellow. Source: xStation5