🏦 Macroeconomics
- The Bank of Japan decided to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, reaching a 31-year high.
- The decision was passed by a 7-2 vote, with Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato voting against. This is a considerable surprise leading to a decidedly less hawkish tone of the decision.
- These members expressed deep concerns regarding the sustainability of the current economic recovery in the country and questioned the validity of this move given inflation, which remains below the 2% target.
- Moody's raised India's FY2027 GDP growth forecast to 7.0%, pointing to the strong resilience of the local economy against Middle East tensions.
- At the same time, analysts at Barclays forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November and February 2027.
- Gold and silver prices are rising, directly supported by falling US Treasury bond yields.
- An additional impulse for the markets is Financial Times reports that Venezuela is close to finalizing a key agreement to transfer gold reserves worth $4 billion directly to New York.
- WTI crude oil is consolidating, staying below $96.30 per barrel. Ongoing geopolitical unrest in the Middle East actively supports the demand side, but prices have dropped clearly from recent peaks as WTI was above $100 earlier this week.
- Copper is heading towards a weekly gain, driven by the return of demand from key buyers in China. This strong demand impulse successfully counterbalanced the recent hawkish message from the US Federal Reserve.
- At 07:14, gold is at 4,366 and up 0.56% (up 0.42% for the week), silver is at 66.21 and up 1.65% (up 2.64% for the week), WTI crude is at 96.36 and down 0.18% (down 3.62% for the week), and copper is at 14,476 and up 1.89% (up 1.71% for the week).
- The Japanese yen depreciated sharply following the BoJ decision, pushing the exchange rate to its highest level since early September around 157.20.
- Foreign exchange investors engaged in mass profit-taking, following the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" rule.
- Additionally, the dovish dissonance caused by the dissent of two BoJ board members significantly weakened the hawkish tone of the rate hike, also triggering strong gains on GBPJPY and AUDJPY pairs.
- The euro is strengthening towards 1.1500, successfully leveraging slight US dollar weakness. Despite this trend, the main dollar index holds stable above the psychological barrier of 100.00 points.
- The Swiss franc is gaining for the second consecutive day, pushing the currency pair towards 0.8230 during the Asian session. This move stems directly from increasing downward pressure on US Treasury yields, weakening the US dollar.
- At 07:14, EURUSD is at 1.1485 (up 0.11%, down 0.93% weekly), USDJPY is at 157.23 (up 0.85%, up 2.5% weekly), USDCHF is at 0.8237 (up 0.0%, up 1.0% weekly), and the dollar index is at 100.00 (up 0.05%, up 1.17% weekly).
- US index futures show low volatility following Thursday's rebound after the Fed decision. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225 rises, largely driven by a strong rebound in semiconductor maker SK Hynix.
- Shares of Japanese platform Mercari exhibit increased volatility after restrictions on Pokémon card listings triggered prior sell-offs. Meanwhile, in the US, the FCC approved foreign capital involvement in the media giants Paramount and Warner merger.
- The broader crypto market notes a successful start to the session, characterized by a green opening across most assets. Bitcoin trades at $77,300, while Ethereum grows toward the $2,473 mark.
- Clear leaders in daily and weekly gains are Uniswap and Zcash.
- Uniswap token grows by nearly 10% daily and nearly 29% weekly, standing out with strong bullish momentum.
- Zcash grows by over 4% today and over 29% weekly, characterized by an extremely high deviation from its long-term average.
- At 07:14, bitcoin is at 77,394 (up 1.49%, up 0.27% weekly) and ethereum is at 2,485 (up 1.71%, down 0.83% weekly).
- Pakistan's army chief issued an official appeal to Iranian authorities to exert pressure on Houthi militants to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Simultaneously, a UN mission published a report indicating potential war crimes by US forces in Iran, including an attack on an elementary school, which Washington officially rejected.
- Russian aviation carried out a missile strike targeting a postal logistics hub near Ukrainian Odessa. This strike aligns with intensifying Russian actions targeting Ukraine's critical logistics infrastructure.
- Hyundai CEO warned of the risk of a sharp surge in Chinese EV imports to the US if appropriate tariffs and protective measures are not maintained. He added that Chinese competitors develop technologies at an incredible pace and noted his company needs more time to analyze data from millions of vehicles before implementing autonomous driving technology.
- The USDJPY currency pair deserves close monitoring as the BoJ rate hike triggered a paradoxical yen sell-off. The rate tests key resistance around 157.20, creating room for heightened volatility on other yen pairs like GBPJPY and AUDJPY.
- Zcash cryptocurrency exhibits an extreme 5-year z-score of +6.24. With a weekly return around +29.42%, it is in an overbought phase, suggesting careful market monitoring for a potential correction or continuation.
- Uniswap token is a clear leader in the broader crypto market with daily gains exceeding 9% and nearly 29% weekly.
- Silver rises by 1.38% daily and over 2.6% weekly with a high 5-year z-score of +1.66, reacting strongly to falling US bond yields.
Macro Calendar – Dovish BoJ Pivot and Key Data from Europe and the US
Daily Summary: Hawkish Fed fails to scare the markets (17.09.2026)
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US Open: Nasdaq, gold and silver surge following... an interest rate hike (17.09.2026)
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