Morning wrap (09.05.2025)

Market volatility is limited in the first part of the day. Indexes in China are trading between -0.10% and 0.40%. Australia’s AUS200.cash rebounds 0.45% on stronger export data from China, Japan’s JP225 bounces 0.07%, and Singapore’s SG20.cash gains 0.95%.

High-level trade talks between the U.S. and China will take place this weekend in Switzerland. These will be the first such talks in months and are seen as a key opportunity to de-escalate the trade war. Chinese officials have struck a cautious tone ahead of the meeting, so expectations are low.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that deals with Japan and South Korea will take longer than the agreement with the United Kingdom. He emphasized that a 10% tariff rate is the best-case scenario other countries can expect. Countries with trade deficits will likely face higher rates. The U.S. is prioritizing deals with large Asian economies.

Chinese exports rose 8.1% y/y in April, beating the 1.9% forecast, driven by accelerated shipments ahead of tariffs. Imports fell just 0.2%, better than expected, but still indicate weak domestic demand. Total trade value for January–April reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a 2.4% y/y increase. Export performance remains regionally uneven.

Despite the overall export growth, shipments to the U.S. dropped nearly 18% from March to April. Chinese exporters appear to be routing goods through Vietnam and other countries. This tactic, known as “origin washing,” helps bypass direct tariffs.

Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying stated that China is “not afraid” of U.S. tariffs and called U.S. policy unsustainable. The statement aims to project strength ahead of the Switzerland talks. China signals it will not yield easily. This could make it harder for both sides to reach an agreement.

Real wages in Japan fell 2.1% y/y in March, marking the biggest drop in two years and the third consecutive monthly decline. Overtime pay fell 1.1%, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity. Despite rising nominal wages, real income is shrinking.

Household spending in Japan rose 2.1% y/y in March, far above the 0.2% forecast. Month-over-month growth was 0.4%. Government officials see early signs of a consumption recovery. However, spending on essentials such as food remains limited.

White House trade advisor Navarro confirmed that tariffs on steel and aluminum remain in place. This underscores that the broader tariff regime is not being rolled back. It limits hopes for full trade normalization. Steel and industrial sectors remain exposed to protectionism.

Treasury Secretary Bessent supports easing tensions with China but also backs Trump’s plan to raise taxes on top earners. He stressed that Trump approves the final trade deals. Despite ongoing talks, most agreements remain unfinalized.

Bitcoin approached the 104,000 USD level amid rising global liquidity and advancing digital asset regulation in the U.S.