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After the U.S. session closed, Trump said, “We will be seeing land action in Venezuela soon,” with no further media commentary. If this signals a possible military intervention, flows into safe-haven assets could surge sharply.
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Trump also declared an “end” to all trade talks with Canada, referencing an ad about “Reagan tariffs.” Meanwhile, Canada reduced duty-free import limits for Stellantis (−50%) and GM (−24.2%) to push for greater domestic investment. The USDCAD reaction has so far been muted.
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In September, Japan’s inflation remained high at 2.9% y/y, with core at 2.9% and core-core at 3.0%. Goods prices rose 4.2% y/y, while services increased only 1.4%. The weak pace in services limits the chances of an early rate hike by the BoJ and continues to pressure the yen.
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The JPY is the weakest G10 currency today, losing around 0.20–0.40% against peers, while USDJPY is up 0.30%. The mixed CPI data (sticky goods, soft services) gives the BoJ a reason to delay policy tightening, and markets now see less pressure to hike.
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Finance Minister Katayama stated that BoJ policy should align with the government’s stance, emphasizing the importance of Governor Ueda’s accommodative approach. She met with Treasury Secretary Bessent and is set to meet him and Trump again next week. Takaichi announced a “responsible but proactive” fiscal policy, prioritizing economic growth first and fiscal consolidation later.
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Japan’s preliminary manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 (a 19-month low), marking the fourth consecutive month in contraction. The services PMI dropped to 52.4, and the composite declined to 50.9.
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In Australia, the preliminary manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 (from 51.4), while services rose to 53.1, bringing the composite to 52.6. The mixed data keeps the RBA in a data-dependent stance.
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Chinese authorities pledged to boost support for consumption. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced major auctions, including over ¥5 trillion in underground pipeline infrastructure, aiming to stabilize growth and stimulate investment.
BREAKING: EURGBP muted despite solid PMI data from the UK 🔎
Strong PMI from Germany, mixed data from France. Euro gains 🔎
Economic calendar: Delayed US CPI report due Today 📌
BREAKING: UK retail sales come in much higher than expected; EURGBP declines 📌
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