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Asian-Pacific indices post slight gains in the first part of the day. Chinese equity indices rise in the 0.80–1.10% range, Japan’s JP225 falls 0.30%, while Australia’s AU200.cash gains 0.66%.
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The dollar is the weakest currency in the first part of the day. The USIDX index posts a decline of 0.20–0.30% against other G10 currencies. EURUSD rises 0.20%, while USDJPY falls 0.41%.
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Gold broke above USD 3,800, rising 1% on the day and over 10% monthly, on the back of safe-haven demand and momentum. The metal is on track for its best month since July 2020.
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Markets continue to price in elevated government shutdown risk, though lower than over the weekend. The short-term budget expires on October 1. Republicans have insisted they will not make concessions on passing a short-term funding bill.
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Tensions escalated after the White House Office of Management and Budget last week instructed agencies to prepare mass layoff plans in the event of a shutdown.
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Oil opened lower but recovered losses. The market weighed reports that OPEC+ plans to raise October quotas by at least ~137 kb/d. Iraq resumed crude flows through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey at ~180–190 kb/d, adding supply. Positioning remains cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
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UBS estimated the probability of a U.S. recession this year at 93%, based on indicators such as income, spending, industrial production, and employment. Even so, the bank stopped short of declaring a recession, calling the economy “weak but not collapsing.”
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Tesla will publish sales figures this week. The consensus currently assumes 448–456k deliveries (vs. 463k a year ago), with last-minute purchases boosted by U.S. tax credits at the end of the quarter.
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Reports say Xi is pushing for a change in the U.S. stance on Taiwan independence. One of the pressure points is Trump’s interest in a trade deal.
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