- Oil prices are pulling back slightly after yesterday’s gains, while equity index futures—including US100 and US500—as well as Bitcoin are rebounding despite ongoing uncertainty and extremely elevated tensions in the Persian Gulf. The largest cryptocurrency is climbing toward $81,000, reinforcing bullish sentiment around a gradual return to an uptrend. Today’s key macro releases include US JOLTS and US ISM Services data, both due at 3 PM GMT. Ahead of the session, PayPal and Pfizer will report earnings, followed by AMD after the close.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf are affecting oil logistics and security—A Maersk vessel flying the US flag exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz under US military escort, highlighting elevated operational risks along one of the world’s most critical energy routes. Such developments point to tangible threats to supply continuity and increasing militarization of the region.
- The oil market is signaling tightening supply conditions amid the Iran conflict—Chevron indicates a deteriorating supply backdrop, while storage buffers are being drawn down, reducing the market’s ability to absorb supply shocks. This environment supports heightened volatility in energy prices.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates, in line with expectations, tightening policy in response to persistent inflation and lifting the cash rate to 4.35% from 4.10%.
- Palantir significantly beat financial expectations and raised its guidance—the company reported better-than-expected results (EPS $1.33 vs. $1.28 forecast, alongside stronger revenue and EBITDA), while increasing its outlook for Q2 and the full year, particularly in the US commercial segment. This points to sustained strong demand for data/AI solutions and improved operational efficiency. Despite this, the stock fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading.
- The US is shifting its regulatory stance on artificial intelligence—the administration is considering introducing oversight mechanisms for AI models before public release, including a potential formal review process and the creation of a working group bringing together government and Big Tech. This marks a departure from the previously more hands-off approach and introduces a potential regulatory risk factor for the sector.
- The European Union is actively monitoring AI development and engaging with the private sector—contact with Anthropic regarding the Mythos project underscores increasing regulatory involvement in AI, potentially leading to greater harmonization or regulatory divergence between the EU and the US.
Oil and Palantir (D1 chart)
Source: xStation5
Source; xStation5
Economic calendar: US Services ISM and JOLTS report in focus
The Week Ahead
Daily summary: Conflict escalates again - indices down, oil up
Palantir preview: Another record or another sell-off?
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