Morning Wrap: EURUSD at 2-month high! Rate hike bets keep shrinking (17.08.2026)

📊 Indices and Companies

• After an uncertain Friday session, US index futures resume gains near historical highs. Nasdaq futures are gaining the most (US100: +0.3%). S&P 500 futures (US500: +0.15%) and Russell 2000 futures (US2000: +0.05%) are also up. Declines in DJIA futures (US30: -0.05%) suggest a continued capital shift toward tech stocks.

• Asia is seeing a rally driven by falling expectations for US interest rate hikes following weak Friday consumer data (a drop in retail sales and sentiment indices). Gains were led by Hong Kong (HK.cash: +1.1%) and China (CHN.cash: +1.15%). Nikkei 225 futures (JP225) gained 0.3% despite significantly weaker Japanese GDP data. Australia is trading flat, while South Korea is closed for a holiday.

• The semiconductor sector led gains in Japan and China (including Kioxia +7.6%, SMIC +7.1%, and Cambricon +5%). Alibaba added 1.5% following reports of a planned sale of gaming studio Lingxi Games (valued at >$1.5 billion). In Australia, select companies fell sharply after reporting earnings: retailer JB Hi-Fi and bank NAB (down over 3.5% following warnings of a slump in the mortgage market).

🌍 Economy and Geopolitics

• Japanese GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.1% in Q2 (0.3% QoQ), falling well below the 2% consensus. An unexpected drop in domestic demand was the main driver behind the miss. Private consumption fell for the first time in two years (-0.02% QoQ), while CAPEX contracted by 1.2% QoQ due to supply chain uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East. These declines offset the positive impact of net exports, which were buoyed by demand for AI equipment and hybrid vehicles.

• Conversely, industrial production delivered a positive surprise (4.9% YoY; forecast: 4.2%, previous: -2.1%), reflecting the optimism recently signaled in the Tankan survey.

• Foreign ministers from eight nations (including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt) along with Hamas condemned Israel's rejection of the Board of Peace plan. Turkish President Erdogan stated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains a top priority.

💱 Currencies, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies

• The dollar index is down for a third consecutive session (USDIDX: -0.15%), touching lows that marked key support in mid-June. Rising risk appetite in Asia is confirmed by broad gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars (AUDUSD: +0.4%, NZDUSD: +0.6%). The yen is strengthening despite weak GDP data (USDJPY: -0.15%). EURUSD (+0.2%) is trading at a two-month high near 1.1585.

• Brent futures (OIL) remain glued to Friday's close (around $88.50 per barrel) amid a lack of material changes in the Middle East. European natural gas futures opened higher (NATGAS.EU: +2%, NATGAS: -2%).

• Declining expectations for Fed rate hikes are once again driving precious metals. Gold gains 0.4% to $4,393 per ounce, while silver adds 1.6% to $65.70 per ounce. Platinum and palladium futures are also trading in the green.

• In crypto, moderate optimism prevails. Bitcoin adds 0.9% to $63,520, while Ethereum gains 1.3% to $1,900.