🎉Morning Wrap – Nvidia and Trump Boost Market Sentiment (21.05.2026)

🏢 Stock Market & Companies

• Nvidia presented very strong financial results for fiscal Q1 2027: earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.87 versus the expected $1.77, while the company's revenue reached $81.62 billion against a market consensus of $79.19 billion.
• The company also provided an optimistic outlook for the next quarter, estimating revenue at an average level of $91 billion (within a range of ±2%), which beat market expectations standing at $87.36 billion.
• The board of directors significantly raised the quarterly dividend from the previous $0.01 to $0.25 per share and announced a massive $80 billion share buyback program.
• Investor reaction to the published report was mixed: stock prices initially fell slightly, then rose by nearly 1%, and currently sit 0.5% below yesterday's close. This temporary pullback initially weighed on Wall Street futures, but on the morning of May 21, we are seeing a successful continuation of the gains.
• S&P 500 futures (US500) are currently up 0.2% to 7,448 points, while tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) are gaining 0.35%, reaching the 29,384 mark.
• Mixed macroeconomic reports from Japan and Australia did not weigh down the valuations of local indices: Japanese Nikkei 225 futures are gaining nearly 1%, rising to 61,840 points, while futures on Australia's benchmark ASX 200 index (AU200) are ticking up by 0.23%.
• The situation in Chinese markets remains mixed: Hang Seng CE futures (CHN.cash) are down 0.93%, while China 50 futures (CH50cash) are up 0.25%.

📊 Macroeconomics

• Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.5% from the previous 4.3%. Employment fell by 18,600, despite the market expecting a 17,500 increase—such weak data could suggest that further interest rate hikes by the local central bank are not 100% certain.
• The Australia Composite PMI dropped to 47.8 points, which was directly related to a record decline in the new orders sub-index since 2021.
• According to the preliminary reading, Japan's Composite PMI fell to 51.1 points from the previous 52.2 points, marking a 5-month low. The main reason for the deteriorating sentiment was a slump in the services index to the 50-point threshold.
• On the other hand, very strong Japanese foreign trade data was published: exports rose 14.8% y/y (against expectations of 9.3% y/y), while imports increased by 9.7% y/y (compared to a forecast growth of 8.3% y/y). As a result, the trade balance closed with a surplus of JPY 302 billion, while the market had expected a deficit of nearly JPY 30 billion.
• Four independent sources close to the ECB reported that a June interest rate hike is essentially a done deal, but the subsequent decision in July remains up in the air. This move is aimed at maintaining the institution's credibility in fighting inflation, which consistently stays above the 3% level.
• Deutsche Bank analysts project that the first hike will take place in June, followed by another in September, ultimately bringing the ECB deposit rate to the 2.5% mark.

🛢️ Commodities & Geopolitics

• Brent crude prices experienced a sell-off of over 5% yesterday, a direct reaction to a post by Donald Trump on the Truth Social platform. Trump indicated that peace negotiations between the US and Iran have entered their final phase, while reports incoming from Tehran confirm that Iran is currently analyzing the proposals made by the United States.
• However, regional tensions continue to be fueled by the fact that Iran has unilaterally declared a control zone in the Strait of Hormuz, which also encompasses territorial waters under the jurisdiction of Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
• Goldman Sachs warns that global crude oil and fuel inventories are shrinking at a record pace, due to the fact that the current flow of the commodity through the Strait of Hormuz is at just 5% of its standard volume. According to GS estimates, inventories are declining by 8.7 million barrels per day—a significantly faster pace than that reported by the IEA in March and April, though it is worth noting that two-thirds of this decline is tied to the depletion of floating storage (on water).

💱 Currencies

• Yesterday's release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting did not have a major impact on the valuation of the US dollar.
• The main currency pair EURUSD recorded significant gains around the Wall Street session open, further fueled by Trump's optimistic remarks regarding the progress of negotiations with Iran. Currently, the EURUSD exchange rate is stabilizing at 1.1620.