Morning wrap 📈 Oil at the highest level since 7 April, Wall Street uncertain ahead of the Fed

• Indices are slightly easing after the record gains of recent days, but remain near their highs ahead of tomorrow's post-session earnings from major tech companies: Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms. Investors are awaiting megacap reports as well as signals from central banks regarding the economic impact of the Iran conflict.
• Today, before the U.S. stock market opens, earnings will be released by companies including Coca-Cola, General Motors, and UPS. At 1:15 PM GMT, the weekly change in U.S. employment according to ADP will be published, followed by the Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence reading at 3 PM GMT
• After the session, companies including Visa and Starbucks will report results. Tomorrow at 7 PM GMT, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision. The central bank is almost certain to hold off on cutting rates, while the market will closely follow Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks.
• At 7 PM GMT tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision – the central bank is almost certain to keep rates unchanged, while markets will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
• Equity gains have slowed due to rising oil prices, but the upward trend remains intact: the S&P 500 is on track for its best monthly close since 2020. Today, investors are focused on results from IT giants with a combined valuation exceeding $16 trillion, accounting for around 25% of the index’s market capitalization.
• Trump has convened a national security team meeting to discuss Iran’s proposal for resolving the conflict. Iran has proposed a temporary solution involving reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. maritime blockade. The U.S. is reviewing the latest proposal but emphasizes “red lines,” including preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• During the Asian session, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, in line with market expectations. In Japan, the Nikkei fell over 1.5% despite a 0.7% rise in the Topix; China’s Hang Seng also dropped more than 1% and is down nearly 3% year-to-date.

OIL (H1 interval)

Oil has climbed above $103 per barrel – the highest level in three weeks – breaking above the 71.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early April decline. Uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are putting upward pressure on energy commodities.

Source: xStation5