- Yesterday’s Wall Street session ended on a strongly positive note. Gains were supported by incoming reports from the Gulf region regarding a potential framework agreement, as well as the ongoing corporate earnings season. As a result, major US indices closed at record levels. The S&P 500 rose by more than 1.5%, the Nasdaq gained around 2%, while the Dow Jones finished the session up 1.2%.
- The situation surrounding Iran remains at the center of global market attention. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian and US representatives, with the involvement of mediators, are working on a short 14-point memorandum that could serve as the basis for a potential agreement aimed at ending the conflict. Tehran is expected to respond to the US peace proposal on Thursday, through mediation channels involving Pakistan.
- Rising expectations of a possible de-escalation have been positively received by investors. In response to signals of a potential deal, oil prices fell to around 100 USD per barrel. Markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario of reduced geopolitical risk and improved regional stability.
- At the same time, advisors to Donald Trump are reportedly growing concerned about the political consequences of a prolonged conflict with Iran, particularly ahead of the midterm elections and amid rising fuel prices in the United States. Within the administration, there is a growing view that escalation could negatively impact Republican support, as voters increasingly feel the pressure of higher living costs and energy prices.
- Trump, however, maintains a hard stance toward Tehran. The president has issued an ultimatum, warning that failure to accept the proposed agreement would lead to intensified bombings. He also reiterated that the United States will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
- According to the latest reports from Axios, there remains a possibility that Trump could resume military actions before his upcoming trip to China.
- Asian markets also started the session in a strong mood, with investors clearly increasing their risk appetite on growing hopes for a ceasefire around Iran and the avoidance of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The improved sentiment is supporting both equity markets and stability in the energy sector.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 stands out the most, jumping over 6% after returning from the Golden Week holiday, reaching a record level above 63,000 points. Strong gains are also visible across the region. The Hang Seng is up more than 1.3%, while South Korea’s KOSPI is gaining over 1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is also trading higher.
- Japan has once again verbally intervened in the currency market. Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura said authorities are closely monitoring the yen and stand ready to respond to excessive currency moves. However, analysts note that the effectiveness of any intervention may be limited, as the Iran conflict continues to support the US dollar and adds pressure on the yen through higher energy prices.
- Additionally, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s March meeting showed an increasingly hawkish stance. Policymakers signaled readiness for further interest rate hikes if the economy and inflation evolve in line with forecasts, while emphasizing that current rates remain relatively low given persistent inflationary pressures.
- Australian trade data, however, contrasted with the generally positive global sentiment. The country recorded its first trade deficit since late 2017, amounting to 1.8 billion AUD in March.
- Positive sentiment continues in precious metals markets. Gold is up around 0.4%, trading above 4,700 USD per ounce, while silver is outperforming with gains of nearly 1.5%.
- In contrast, cryptocurrencies are under pressure today. Bitcoin is down around 0.3%, testing the 81,000 USD level, while Ethereum is falling by nearly 1.5%, dropping below 2,350 USD.
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