Natural gas had been under pressure since June 20, due to lower-than-initially-expected demand from gas-fired power plants. Consequently, inventory builds in recent weeks have been larger than typical. However, temperatures remain elevated, and the latest forecasts indicate that July and August are set to be very warm. Recent data from last week showed that inventories increased slightly more than anticipated but less than the five-year average. If this trend persists in the coming weeks, inventories will approach the five-year average. Seasonally, gas typically bottoms out around the turn of June and July.
Temperatures in most states are forecast to be higher than normal. Source: NOAA
Gas inventories have recently risen slightly less than expected. Inventory growth should be limited in the coming weeks. This is a crucial seasonal period for gas market gains. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
Seasonally, gas should currently be in an upward trend. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB
Gas prices are rebounding today, despite opening with a downward gap. Gas is approaching the 200-session moving average. If it succeeds in breaching this level, it will mark another false breakout, similar to those observed in April and May. In those two previous instances, following the breach of the 200-session moving average, initial gains amounted to approximately 17-18%. Source: xStation5
VIX drops 10% amid Wall Street rebound attempt🗽
3 markets to watch next week - (17.10.2025)
Fed's Musalem remarks on the US economy and tariffs🗽
Precious metals decline 📉Gold down 2%; Silver loses 4%
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
