- One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% (from 3.2%); three-year expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%; and five-year expectations increased to 3.0% (from 2.9%).
- The perceived probability of higher unemployment within a year climbed to 41.1% (+2.0 pp), while job-loss risk rose to 14.9% (+0.4 pp).
- Expectations for higher stock prices in the next 12 months rose to 39.8% (+0.9 pp), above the 12-month average of 38.0%.
- One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% (from 3.2%); three-year expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%; and five-year expectations increased to 3.0% (from 2.9%).
- The perceived probability of higher unemployment within a year climbed to 41.1% (+2.0 pp), while job-loss risk rose to 14.9% (+0.4 pp).
- Expectations for higher stock prices in the next 12 months rose to 39.8% (+0.9 pp), above the 12-month average of 38.0%.
The New York Fed has just published its latest report based on household survey data covering inflation expectations and economic conditions. In September, household inflation expectations increased at the short-term horizon (1 year: 3.4%) and the long-term horizon (5 years: 3.0%), while remaining stable at the medium-term (3 years: 3.0%). Disagreement among respondents narrowed for both the 1- and 5-year outlooks. Inflation uncertainty declined for the 1-year horizon, remained unchanged for 3 years, and rose slightly for 5 years.
Home-price growth expectations held steady for the fourth straight month at 3.0%. Expected annual price changes increased for food (5.8%, +0.3 pp), gasoline (4.2%, +0.3 pp), medical care (9.3%, +0.5 pp), and rent (7.0%, +1.0 pp), while college-tuition costs declined to 7.0% (–0.8 pp).
Labor-market sentiment weakened despite a rebound in the share of respondents expecting to find a new job after job loss (47.4%, up from 44.9%, but still below the 12-month average of 51.0%). Expected wage growth fell to 2.4%, while respondents reported a higher likelihood of rising unemployment (41.1%), a modest increase in job-loss risk (14.9%), and higher voluntary-quit intentions (20.7%).
Regarding household finances, expected income growth remained stable at 2.9%, while spending growth slowed to 4.7%. The perceived risk of missing a debt payment declined to 12.6% (below the 12-month average of 13.5%). Households rate their current financial situation slightly better than a year ago but are less optimistic about the future. Expectations rose for higher taxes (3.6%), rising public debt (7.5%), a slight increase in savings rates (24.9%), and a greater likelihood of higher stock prices within the next year (39.8%).
RBNZ Rate Decision: Market Eyes Deeper Easing Amid GDP Shock
FOMC officials see structural shifts driven by AI; Kashkari and Miran back two rate cuts this year 🔎
Morning Wrap (07.10.2025)
BREAKING: German Factory Orders bellow expectations! 🏭📉
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
