Join research director Kathleen Brooks, for our NFP market live at 13:15 BST today. Find out the latest US labour market data, and the immediate market reaction, along with an update on the US reciprocal trade tariffs.
Join Kathleen, for our NFP market live at 13:15 BST here
The March payrolls figure seems very stale and out of date after this week’s tariff announcements. Friday’s payrolls data will not be impacted by Trump’s extreme tariffs, we will need to wait for the coming months to see how this could impact the hard US economic data, which has only moderated slightly, compared to a sharp fall in the soft economic data since the start of 2025. Either way, payrolls are always worth watching.
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appThe market is expecting no major surprises from the March report, with 140k non-farm jobs expected to be created, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings are expected to have grown by 4% YoY, within the long-term range.
However, some analysts are expecting a large upside surprise to the March payrolls number. This is down to a rebound in jobs growth after storms and fires distorted the January and February jobs figures, front running of tariffs and some reversals of government grant freezes that may have boosted US jobs growth last month.
Join us at 13:15 BST and find out all about it.
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