Join Kathleen Brooks NOW, for our NFP market live. Find out the latest US labour market data, and the immediate market reaction, along with an update on the US reciprocal trade tariffs.
Although DOGE job losses are expected to weigh on jobs growth later this year, Elon Musk’s reported departure from DOGE could mean that Federal job cuts are less than expected in the coming months. Added to this, some of DOGE’s prior cuts to Federal department workforces and budgets have been rescinded by the courts. The Federal government is a relatively small employer compared to local and state governments. Thus, even if Federal worker numbers fall in March, overall government jobs could still rise if state governments continue to hire workers.
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appThe market reaction to the US labour market report has been muted in recent months, due to the distortions to the data caused by weather events. The average response in the last 12 months in the 30-minutes after the payrolls report has been released is mildly positive for the S&P 500. The biggest positive move after a payrolls report was for the February 2025 report and the October 2024 report. The S&P 500 rose by 0.4% on both occasions, 30 minutes after payrolls were released.
The largest move to the downside came after the July report was released in early August, which saw a large negative surprise and spurred a larger sell off in risk assets in the following days and weeks. The moves in the dollar have been negligible after payroll reports in recent months. This suggests that other factors are driving the dollar right now, for example Trump’s tariff programme and concerns about US trade relations, rather than US economic data.
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