A major focus is the annual payroll revisions. Economists expect a large downward revision of around 825,000 jobs for 2025, which could significantly weaken the picture of US job growth. Such large revisions usually occur during recessions, but current GDP growth remains strong, raising questions about whether this signals early economic trouble, reflects productivity gains (e.g. from AI), or is linked to tighter immigration reducing labour supply.
Although payroll growth appears weak, the unemployment rate has risen only gradually and remains historically low. This divergence suggests reduced immigration may be affecting job growth more than overall labour demand.
For January, payrolls are expected to rise by 65,000, unemployment to stay at 4.4%, and wage growth to ease slightly to 3.7%.
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