OIL above $90 as Israel attacks Hezbollah in Lebanon

18:00 13 October 2023

OIL (brent) contracts are gaining nearly 4.2% today, and the price approached the important psychological level of $90 per barrel before the weekend - erasing much of the downward reaction triggered by concerns about global demand (as well as lower consumption and rising gasoline stocks in the US).

Israeli forces fire on targets in Lebanon

The main reason why oil jumps higher today is rise to risk aversion due to escalation risk in the Middle East conflict. US  Secretary of State Blinken indicated that there is no return to 'business as usual' on the Hamas issue, and Iran's foreign minister stressed that the country will make an increased effort to stop 'Israeli crimes' in the Gaza Strip. This rift, as well as a possible ground operation by the Israeli military, indicates that the mood in the Arab world could escalate further in the future. 

According to NNA news reports, an exchange of fire between the Israeli military and Hezbollah was said to have occurred today, near the border with Lebanon. Israeli military forces reported on Twitter that drones are currently striking terrorist targets belonging to the terrorist organization, in Lebanon. Although the issue of a wider conflict between Israel and Arab states currently remains only in the realm of 'probability assumption' - is prompting traders to increase long positions on oil, which, like the US dollar, is becoming a beneficiary of risk aversion.

Source: xStation5

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