Oil prices showed little reaction to comments from a senior Iranian source stating that there are currently no talks on extending the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. The lack of a meaningful move in crude prices appears to suggest that investors continue to expect a gradual de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East despite the latest headlines.
- From Tehran’s perspective, there is no formal deadline that could be extended because, according to the Iranian side, the ceasefire did not have an officially defined start date.
- Iran claims that the United States violated the interim agreement within the first 48 hours and subsequently withdrew from it.
- Current talks are focused primarily on a potential U.S. return to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) and on establishing a timeline for implementing previous commitments.
- According to the Iranian side, no significant progress has been made in these negotiations so far.
What did the IEA data show?
At the same time, the IEA has once again significantly revised its historical estimates for global oil demand, with the scale of the adjustments showing that consumption has been considerably stronger than previously assumed.
- Global oil consumption in 2025 is now estimated at 104.8 million barrels per day, around 300,000 b/d above the previous estimate.
- Even more notable is the revision compared with estimates from a year ago – the IEA’s current assessment of 2025 demand is as much as 1.1 million b/d higher.
- Despite the substantial upward revision to demand, the IEA still estimates that the oil market was oversupplied in 2025, with average supply reaching around 106.3 million b/d.
- The IEA now expects global oil consumption to reach approximately 105.7 million b/d in 2027. This is already above the 105.6 million b/d level that, just a year ago, the agency expected to represent the peak in global oil demand in 2029.
Successive revisions indicate that global oil demand is proving more resilient than previously expected. In our view, this weakens the argument that global oil consumption is already very close to a structural peak. Oil futures are once again trading near $90 per barrel.
Source: xStation5
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